利用系統動力學探討產品服務系統之碳足跡評估-以洗衣行為為例

System Dynamic Modeling of Carbon Footprint for Product Service Systems– A Case Study of Laundry Behaviors

曾鈺雯(Yu-Wen Zeng)

指導教授 ： 胡憲倫

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/環境工程與管理研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2011.00430

摘要

近年來隨著全球暖化的日益惡化，節能減碳已成為全球企業共同努力的目標。產品服務系統(Product Service System, PSS) 可在滿足消費者需求的前提下，透過服務方式取代產品本身，達到去物質化的目標。企業若將碳足跡觀念融入產品服務系統中，不僅可做為企業達成永續企業目標外，也可提供給消費者永續性選擇。本研究使用系統動力學建立民眾選擇家用洗衣及自助洗衣模式之碳排放模型，並利用STELLA軟體進行情境模擬。情境模擬主要根據三種變數－價格、可及率與送洗方式，針對2000年至2029年間不同洗衣模式之排碳量進行模擬。研究結果顯示全台灣年度家用洗衣碳足跡從2000年時的56,105公噸增加至2015年的58,442公噸， 2015年後至2029年時降至54,745公噸；而自助洗衣之碳足跡，從2000年時的32,393公噸增加至2018年的34,935公噸， 2018年後至2029年則降至33,809公噸。價格情境模擬結果顯示，當自助洗衣價格上漲的情境下能夠抑制自助洗衣碳足跡與總洗衣碳足跡的增加。可及率模擬結果發現增加可及率之年增率時，自助洗衣或家用洗衣碳足跡，與總洗衣碳足跡變動都逐漸下降。送洗情境模擬結果顯示，自助洗衣碳足跡與基線情境相較下，會因使用不同的送洗情境，增加自助洗衣10%到15%的碳足跡。

關鍵字

產品服務系統 ； 洗衣行為 ； 系統動力學 ； 情境模擬

並列摘要

In recent years, due to the deteriorated global warming condition, energy efficiency and carbon reduction has become a must practice for enterprises worldwide. Product Service System (PSS), a new business model by replacing products with services, will not just satisfy customer’s needs, but also can reach the goal of dematerialization. By incorporating the consideration of carbon footprint into PSS, companies can create more value to this new business model. This study applied system dynamics theory to establish a carbon emission model for simulating the carbon emissions of laundry behaviors. Carbon emissions from year 2000 to 2029 for both home-operated laundry and coin-operated laundry with three scenarios were simulated by STELLA software. These three scenarios are price, availability and ways of trasportation. Results show that for home laundry, carbon emissions will be increasing from 56,105 tones in 2000 to 58,442 tones in 2015, then start decreasing to 54,745 tons in 2029. For coin-operated laundry, carbon emissions will be also increasing from 32,393 tones in 2000 to 34,934 tones in 2018, then start decreasing to 33,809 tons in 2029. Results of scenario simulations indicate that both price and availability are inverse proportional to the carbon emissions, which means higher price or increase the availability will reduce the carbon emissions of self-laundry and total carbon emissions. And simulation results also indicated that carbon emissions of self-laundry will be affected by different transportation modes and the differences will be among 10-15%.

並列關鍵字

Product Service System ； Laundry Behavior ； System Dynamics ； Scenario Simulation

參考文獻

[1] 陳建仁，流行病學-原理與方法，台北：聯經出版社，1999。

[31] 王琴，建置產品服務化系統(PSS)之永續性績效評估工具，碩士論文，國立台北科技大學環境工程與管理研究所，台北，2009。

[7] Sterman, J., Business Dynamic: System Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, McGraw-Hill, Boston, 2000.

[9] Bartolomeo, M., dal Maso, D.,de Jong, P., Eder, P., Groenewegen, P., Hopkinson, P., James, P., Nijhuis, L., Örninge, M., Scholl, G., Slob, A. and Zarign, O., “Eco-efficient Producer Services–What are They, How Do They Benefit Customers and the Environment and How Likely are They to Develop and Be Extensively Utilized?”Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 11, 2003, pp. 829-837.

[10] Cairns, S., “Promises and problems: Using GIS to analyze shopping travel,” Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 6(4), 1998, pp. 273-284.