探討次世代太陽能電池之發展趨勢

The Development Trend for the Next Generation Solar Cell

彭雅妮(Ya-Ni Peng)

指導教授 ： 曾芳美

元智大學/管理學院/國際企業學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

近年來太陽光電產業成長快速，造成結晶矽太陽電池之上游矽材缺貨，再加上全球需求不斷上揚的刺激下，次世代太陽能電池取得一個很好的發展舞台。過去研究者皆著重在第一代結晶矽太陽電池之研究，但次世代太陽電池的技術、特性及應用領域皆與第一代結晶矽太陽電池有所差異，故本研究認為需分開探討，才更符合太陽電池產業現況。

次世代太陽能電池種類眾多，主要包含有第二代的矽薄膜類與第三代的有機染料類。在矽薄膜太陽電池中，目前以非晶矽薄膜太陽電池為主流，同時最具發展潛力，故已有許多業者投入此領域的研發。而專利將是企業研發成果的重要指標，因此，本研究將以Ernst(1998)所提出的專利組合進行非晶矽薄膜太陽電池之技術發展的分析研究，藉由選定適當的專利指標來衡量各廠商之研發能力並探討其技術定位；找出現今非晶矽薄膜之主流技術領域為何及各領域現在發展之程度。
本研究發現目前非晶矽薄膜太陽電池的主流技術領域已發展到技術生命週期中的成熟期。另外，本研究也得到四個專利策略群組，並藉由整合公司層面及技術層面之結果，提出建議以作為廠商在進行研發規劃與擬定專利策略時的參考。

屬於第三代的染料敏化電池，具有低成本及可透光可撓等結晶矽太陽能電池所沒有的優點，極可能成為下一世代廣泛運用的太陽能技術。然而，目前DSSC技術不夠成熟，仍處於研究開發階段，未能有大量商業化。由於DSSC的發展上有著相當高的不確定性，本研究運用情境分析法並結合DSSC領域的文獻及專家意見，探討未來十年內DSSC的發展趨勢。

由研究結果得到DSSC蓬勃發展、技術發展遲滯及DSSC成長趨緩這三個情境。本研究並針對這三個情境來給予DSSC產業廠商未來策略的建議。

關鍵字

專利組合分析 ； 情境分析 ； 次世代太陽能電池

並列摘要

Under the raw material shortage of crystalline silicon solar cells, the next generation solar cells have acquired the perfect stage for developments. In the past, researchers have emphasized on the research of the crystalline silicon solar cells. But the application of the next generation are different from that of the crystalline silicon solar cells, thus we propose that these two have to be discussed individually to conform to the current situation of the solar cell industry.

Among the thin film solar cells, the mainstream is a-Si thin film solar cell with the most potential to develop; as a result, many manufacturers have invested in R&D of such field. The patent is a key indicator of entrepreneurial R&D fruits; thereupon, we employ patent portfolio proposed by Ernst to embark on the analysis of technology development regarding a-Si thin film solar cell. We discover that the major technology field of a-Si thin film solar cell has reached the mature period of technology life cycle; moreover, the 4 patent strategic clusters are obtained.

The 3rd-generation dye-sensitized solar cell has lots of advantages which crystalline silicon solar cell fails to achieve; therefore, it is possible to become the broadly-employed next-generation solar cell. However, it fails to be commercialized with production due to the immature technology. With the great uncertainty in DSSC development, we employ scenario analysis integrating with literature review and experts’ opinions to explore the DSSC development trend in the coming 10 year.

Concluding the findings, we obtain 3 scenarios mainly DSSC Prosperous Development, Sluggish Technology Development and DSSC Stagnant Development and propose the suggestions concerning the preceding 3 scenarios.

並列關鍵字

Patent Portfolio ； Scenario Analysis ； next generation solar cell

參考文獻

6. 汪偉恩，「太陽電池應用市場概況與未來趨勢」，光連雙月刊，67期，

13. 黃慧文，「亞洲版圖下的綠色能源發展-太陽能產業」，台灣經濟研究月刊，

English references

1. Ashton, W. B. and Sen, R. K. (1988), “Using patent information in technology business planning”, Research Technology Management, 31(6), pp.42-46

2. Ashton, W. B. and Sen, R. K. (1988), “Using patent information in technology business planning2”, Research Technology Management, 32(1), pp.36-42