應用多代擴散模型分析液晶顯示器之新產品發展策略

EFFECTS OF MULTI-GENERATION DIFFUSION MODELS ON THE NEW PRODUCT STRATEGY OF LCD MONITOR

潘信榮(Hsin Jung Pan)

指導教授 ： 曾 芳 美

元智大學/管理學院/管理研究所/碩士(2004年)

摘要

近年來顯示器產業方面，主要成長動力來自於液晶顯示器快速成長，尤其是主要零組件 TFT-LCD 面板在 2003 年與 2004 年間積極擴建七條第五代生產線陸續進入量產，產能大幅提升及成本下降，所以 2004 年年初液晶顯示器樂觀的預測成長的幅度更大。對顯示器業者而言，最重要的是時間和市場潛量的考量，是否能在是最適當時機介入新世代產品液晶顯示器，另一方面能運用策略規劃，及早建立新世代產品所需的核心技術和舊產品資源的轉移。
所以本研究根據最新的市場趨勢及產業狀況，提出關於其新產品發展策略上的建議。Bass (1969) 提出新產品成長模型後，眾多學者進一步對於 Bass 模型修正及擴充而且在於參數估計及銷售預測方面有較佳的成果。因此，本文採多代擴散模型，預測顯示器未來的銷售情形。研究結果顯示考慮考慮價格函數及市場成長因素的多代擴散模型比只考量價格函數、與未考慮價格函數及市場成長因素之多代擴散模型的配適及預測能力佳。
最後藉此預測模型的結果，模擬分析液晶顯示器的初導入期、未來市場潛量及相關影響要素。希望能讓業界對未來有更準確的瞭解並在產品策略能有所因應。

關鍵字

多代擴散模型 ； 新產品發展策略 ； 擴散模型分析

並列摘要

About the monitor industry recently, The major driving power is the rapid development of TFT-LCD (Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display) Monitor. Specically for the key component of TFT-LCD panel, the total capacity increased and cost reduced speedily through 7 lines of 5th generation start the mass production step by step. So foresee the huge growthing optimistically. From the monitor maker points of view, the most important things are master timing and market potential size, decide to step in new generation LCD Monitor under opportune moment. On one hand, make use of strategy planning to build up the essential core competence for new product and convert the resource from CRT monitor to LCD Monitor as early as possible,
This thesis address the suggestion of product development strategy according to the analysis and understanding of the newest industry status and market trendency. Since contacted with the growth model of new product which Bass (1969) created, led numerous scholars to study the associated application and research. Then investigate further on model amendment and extension, the method correction of paramenter evaluation, flexible diffusion model and model application. And have better achievement on paramenter evaluation and sales forecast. Therefore, this thesis attempt to take price factor and market growth rate into consideration, then verify the correspondence and prophecy of three models (basic, price factor considering, price factor and maket growth rate considering) through the comparison with real data.
Eventually can obtain the information of initial stage, market potential size and related important key factors about LCD Monitor by means of the simulation analysis derived from above prediction model, then study the application on product development strategy. Expect also can conduce the monitor maker have more explicit understanding and find the counterplot of product strategy.

並列關鍵字

Multi-Generation Diffusion Models ； The New Product Strategy