產業衰退與技術變遷下的因應策略分析—以汽車鈑金業第二階承製廠為例

Strategy analysis for industry decline & technology conversion-- The instance of Tier 2 supplier of stamping business

游文榮(Wen-Jung You)

指導教授 ： 徐學忍

元智大學/管理學院/管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

2005年是汽車產業最為風光的一年，各家車廠及其第一階與第二階協力廠紛紛為了國際化以及國內市場的須求量提昇，而投入更多的人力、設備、廠房等，然而就在人機料法都全數就定位的同時，在2006年開始國內須求下降，從2005年的44萬輛下滑至30萬輛。而國際化的影響，原本預計會有大量的量產車型外銷，卻全部都不如預計的二分之一，多於的人力、設備等開始閒置。2007年已經過去，隨之而來的2008年預測又從28萬輛下修至26萬輛，根據預測在整年度又有可能落在22萬左右。
整體汽車市場在國際化採購的影響，台灣的鈑金開發優勢已漸漸勢微，取而代之的是中國大陸以及世界各國進口進來的鈑金。鈑金開發的國產化已經因為國內銷售台數下滑，也慢慢無法達到國產化成本低廉的模式，而且隨之而來的又是鋼鐵價格的上漲，一階廠都已經逐漸降低其開發量，那二階廠又如何去面對未來的環境呢？
高張力鋼板在2003年的逐步遞增其使用量，從原本簡單的270Mpa到現今普遍的590Mpa，而780Mpa與980Mpa又開始隨著新車型的開發逐步遞增其使用量，在協力廠紛紛遭受產能下滑的同時，開發的新車型鈑金技術又隨著高張力係數的提昇而面臨到可負荷設備的使用瓶頸。
從上述三點的現實面，二階廠在面對未來的汽車鈑金開發不論是營運面與技術面都遇到前所未有的考驗，在經過實際的二階廠的巡迴主題式訪談後，利用訪談研究法將七家廠商高階主管的結果趨向作實際的研究整理，所得到結果如下：
1. 針對高張力鋼板，在有限的設備能力下盡力去累積其開發技術，當未來超出實際機台負荷時，將放棄投資設備與接單承製，以降低營運的成本。
2. 面對未來汽車市場的不樂觀，積極者轉型並跨出汽車產業，轉向家電五金或售後服務件的市場，消極者則靜待一階廠輔導協助，營運至無利潤可平衡後收場。

關鍵字

鈑金開發 ； 高張力鋼鈑技術 ； 汽車鈑金二階廠

並列摘要

2005 is the best year for Automobile Industry, and all car makers and it is suppliers include Tier 2 vendors invest more manpower/ equipment / workshop to feed the demand of global & domestic market. And then the coming year 2006 the drop of the car market from 440000 to 300000, and also export for he global market became 1/2 of the previous estimation. This cause the investment became more serious.
However, the car market maybe go from bad to worst with the coming 2008. With the impact of the global sourcing purchasing, the advantage of Taiwan suppliers are going to virtually disappear, and displaced by the imported product form china & oversea. The localization also became less and less and unable to reach the localization cost level due to the drop of car market and also the highly rise of the steel price. While the Tier 1 suppliers reduce the project case, So how should they do with the coming situation for those tier 2 vendor?
The high tensile panel technology become more and more popular from 2003, Just like the basic 270Mpa to 590Mpa, and also the level of 780Mpa & 980Mpa is going to be the tendency for the future vehicle module. Both the impact of depression market and high technology tendency, suppliers just facing the difficulty of the current condition.
To sum up the 3 points above, Tier 2 vendors just facing the challenge both of technology development & further management, some conclusions as below with the interview with chief managers of Tier 2 vendors.
1. Developing the high tensile panel technology with the current limited equipments. However, while overloading they will give up the equipment investment & PO form Tier 1 suppliers to reduce the interior managing cost
2. With the pessimism of current car market, positive vendors turn to other hardware stamping products & global aftermarket. On the other hand, negative vendors only wait the assistance & PO from Tier 1 suppliers to the end with no profit.

並列關鍵字

high tensile panel technology ； stamping development ； tier 2 of stamping

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