以分析師盈餘預測特性探討其他消息對GAO重編樣本是否具同質性

A Test of Homogeneity of Firms Included in the GAO Restatement Database Classified by New Search Results -the Case of Analysts’ Earning Forecast Characteristics

莊凱婷(Kai-Ting Chuang)

指導教授 ： 鍾彩焱

元智大學/管理學院/會計學系/碩士(2007年)

摘要

本研究是以1997∼2002/6/30 GAO重編公司為樣本，從Lexis Nexis資料庫中搜尋重編公司新聞來判斷重編原因，依重編原因區分成有/無違法重編，並參考Easterwood and Nutt（1999）分析方法，將盈餘區分成低盈餘（壞消息）、正常盈餘、高盈餘（好消息）來探討分析師的盈餘預測特性對於重編公司是否具同質性?以及分析師在獲知重編消息後對於違法及非違法重編公司的預測修正方向有無顯著不同？
實證結果顯示：1.未將盈餘區分成好壞消息時，分析師對於預期及非預期盈餘會反應不足。以重編原因區分，發現分析師對於違法重编公司的預期及非預期盈餘變動資訊都也反應不足，但是對於非違法重編則無反應不足的現象。2.將預期盈餘區分成低、正常、高盈餘時，分析師對於壞消息會反應不足，對於好消息則無顯著影響。3.分析師對於公司宣告重編後會有向下修正盈餘預測現象，對於違法重編公司分析師會向下修正其盈餘預測；對於非違法重編公司分析師不會向下修正盈餘預測反而會向上修正預測，表示分析師對非違法重編公司未來現金流量表示樂觀。

關鍵字

分析師預測偏誤、重編、反應過度、反應不足

並列摘要

This study is based on the GAO restatement sample, which consists of 919 restatements of financial statements by listed corporations from the period between 1997 through June 30,2002. This database has been employed by many studies to examine various aspects of financial restatements. However, all these studies have treated the entire sample group as homogeneous. On a closer examination based on Lexis Nexis news search shows that many of these restatements are innocuous, for example, restatements were made to adopt new pronouncements while many restatements were not published by news media. These study aims to investigate if these innocuous restatements are different from the rest of the sample firms from the perspective of financial analysts. I follow Easterwood and Nutt (1999) and classify sample firms into restatements related to accounting frauds and irregularities and innocuous groups and then further divide each group into low, normal and high groups based on magnitude of the earnings changes from previous year .the findings include: First, analysts underreact to expected and unexpected earnings information of innocuous restatement firms’ earnings. However, for the accounting frauds and irregularity group, analysts do not underreact to expected and unexpected earnings information. Second, analysis underreact to bad earnings news but overreact to good earnings news. Third, after company announced that they would restate their financial statement, analysis are more likely revise earnings forecasts downward for the frauds and irregularities group but upward for the innocuous group, indicating that from analysts’ point of view, these two groups are clearly different, which support the value of news search for future research that plan to employ the GAO restatement database.

並列關鍵字

Forecast Error、Restatement、Overreact、Underreact

參考文獻

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