探索特定技術領域之研究前沿：一種綜合性的方法

Exploring Research Fronts of A Given Technology Domain: A Comprehensive Approach

林瑞堉(BruceY.J. Lin)

指導教授 ： 盧煜煬

元智大學/管理學院/管理學院博士班/博士(2011年)

摘要

新興技術(或事業)的探勘、評估、分析與預測…等事務，可統稱為「技術未來分析(Technology Futures Analysis，以下簡稱TFA)」，無論就理論或實務角度觀之，都是難以客觀地一虧全貌的難題。然而，它卻往往是企業追求成長、轉型與長期經營過程中，所必須面對的重大議題。
因此，「如何在層層疊疊的影響因素與詭譎多變的不確定性之中，有效地歸納出過去的軌跡、群聚的結構與分類的特徵，從而進行未來發展趨勢的推估」，乃成為一項相當值得研究的問題。
歷經一年半的系統開發與實測驗證，本研究發展了一種綜合性的TFA研究方法，並且，進而將此方法所須的各項研究工具整合為一套命名為TechExplorer的系統。目前，TechExplorer已初步顯現出前所未見的開創性機能，謹將此系統的主要特徵條例如下：
1. TechExplorer乃是「一種以學術論文與專利相互引用關聯為基礎的技術評估/預測方法」。
2. 此方法嘗試藉由「大量且無特定預設立場資訊(論文/專利的關聯)的結構化解析，以取得初步的研究結論，再由熟悉該領域專家進行結論的確認或建議，做為下一個研究循環的修正參考」來彌補一般「以少數專家的主觀意見或片面知識為主的質性TFA方法的缺失。
3. 藉由各種統計分析演算法與IT工具的運用，希望發展出穩定、可靠且容易操作的方法。

關鍵字

社會網絡 ； 引用網絡 ； 集群分析 ； 主路徑分析 ； 研究前沿 ； 技術探勘 ； 技術評估 ； 技術未來分析

並列摘要

Abstract

The intensity of scientific activities has become a critical factor in technological innovation. Given this, the connections between different evaluation indexes of scientific activities and technological innovation, such as R&D investment vs. research outcome, scientific activities vs. research front and patent portfolio vs. performance, are a frequent target of investigation. Thus, understanding the implications of current scientific activities may be a useful way to understand future trends in technological innovation and social change.
Though technological assessment and forecasting is crucial in the management of technology, it is a difficult task, especially when the target technology is in the early stages of its development. However, former studies have shown it is possible to understand the development trends of a research domain via exploring its hierarchical structure or evolutional trajectory using bibliometric approaches.
The comprehensive approach we proposed is based on the improvement of effectiveness and practicability of previous approaches. It integrates several traditional quantitative analyses in order to compensate for the weakness of each individual analysis. This comprehensive approach is different from previous integrated methods used to bridge the gap between current knowledge and forecasts of the economic potential of nanotechnology, in that our approach is simpler and more practicable. It is also different from the quantitative methods used to analyze industry and academia research activities in a specific technology domain as we introduce different analyses to retrieve the intrinsic attributes of the research domain in both the macro and micro sense rather than rely on a single form of analysis.
According to the result of preliminary case studies conducted in this research, the comprehensive approach we proposed has demonstrated a novel way of analyzing a research domain through citation data, and also showed the potential of complementing the traditional methodologies to increase the feasibility of technology exploration as well.
Hopefully, the efforts we exerted in this research could bring a meaningful contribution to the improvement of TFA’s (Technology Futures Analysis) reliability and validity.

並列關鍵字

citation network ； cluster analysis ； main path analysis ； research front ； technology exploration ； technology assessment ； technology futures analysis ； social network

參考文獻

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