建立以個體為基礎模型(ABM)模擬動態市場在不同行銷策略下的創新接受率

Agent-Based Model for the Simulation of Consumer Behavior in Different Marketing Strategies

劉兆敏(Chao-Min Liu)

指導教授 ： 詹前隆

元智大學/資訊學院/資訊管理學系/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6838/YZU.2013.00226

摘要

消費者行為的研究一直是研究人員及銷售者感興趣的議題。研究顯示，新產品上市時的失敗率約為75% ，約僅有四分之一的創新可能成功的情況下，企業進行新商品發展時，需更小心謹慎，因此，許多學者紛紛投入潛在市場的預估、新產品採用與創新擴散行為之研究，創新擴散定義為，隨著時間的演進，透過特定管道，在社會系統群體間溝通的過程，本研究嘗試探討創新擴散及消費者購買決策行為之間的關聯性，使用NetLogo 來發展個體為基礎之擴散模式去模擬複雜的市場環境，並透過 Agent-based diffusion model模擬的方式動態了解在複雜的市場環境下，消費者在不同的行銷策略下，創新接受率(Innovation adoption rate) 的改變.根據不同的消費者，可採取不同的行銷策略。研究結果發現，價格促銷及廣告效益會增加其消費者的購買意願，另外新產品進入市場的時間點，會影響其新產品之擴散情形，模擬結果顯示較早進入者在市場行銷表現上較好，且在不同的市場環境，產品的擴散情形亦不同。

關鍵字

創新擴散 ； 消費者購買決策 ； 市場環境 ； 行銷策略

並列摘要

Consumer purchase decision making process is of a high interest to both researchers and sellers. Studies have shown that failure rate of new products is approximately 75% and about only a quarter of innovations are successful. Hence, in this study, we attempt to explore the relationship between the success of diffusion of innovation and consumer behavior. Furthermore, the study developed an agent-based diffusion model using NetLogo, to simulate a complicated market environment. The purpose of this study is to understand the dynamic nature of markets, and to analyze the innovation adoption rate of different marketing strategies using various personality characteristics in the model. In reality, the marketing strategy developed depends on consumer’s Innovativeness. Result indicates that consumer purchase decision making were influenced by Price Promotion, advertising marketing and the timing of enter market.

並列關鍵字

Innovation diffusion ； Consumer behavior ； Agent-based model ； Market ； NetLogo

參考文獻

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