土地利用的變遷通常造成不動產價格的變動,本文以南科周邊鄉鎮2001~2009年之不動產價格為研究對象,分析南科周邊鄉鎮歷年不動產價格的空間分布及變遷情形。從歷年不動產價格空間自我相關分析發現,善化鎮市中心為高價位聚集地區,但其聚集的位置並不非一成不變,有由市中心沿縣道178線向東往省道台1線及沿光復路向北往農業區的方向拓展趨勢。而新市鄉市中心最接近南科,但僅在2006年曾經出現高價位聚集區域,歷年分布位置並無太大差異。至於安定鄉市中心曾出現低價位聚集地區,是附近地區不動產價格最低鄉鎮。 經由歷年特徵價格模型分析顯示,對南科不動產價格影響因素以基地面積及樓層數為最重要因素,但若分析所有樣本則顯示,除土地是否為方形外其餘影響因素皆對不動產價格產生影響,而南科的就業人數的增加亦會造成不動產價格上漲,至於房地產景氣在繁榮期及衰退期時不動產價格都較低迷期高。而比較歷年或全部樣本的特徵價格模型與空間自我迴歸模型之結果,無論是空間遲延模型或是空間誤差模型對特徵價格模型解釋能力之改善程度並不高,主要原因是因為南科特定區內的農業區形成南科與各鄉鎮間之空間區隔,使整個地區不動產標的過於分散,造成空間自我迴歸模型無法增加南科周邊鄉鎮不動產價格的估計值準確度。 另外,南科附近地區不動產價格以善化鎮市中心為最高,但並非距離南科越近不動產價格就越高,所以南科對周邊鄉鎮不動產價格的影響不如市中心重要。不過南科仍影響不動產分布與變遷,其中善化鎮不動產分布仍以南科為中心由市中心向外發展,並未遠離南科,而新市鄉在接近南科的鄉村區雖多屬低價位聚集區域,但不斷有新成屋推出,至於安定鄉由於距南科較遠,受南科影響最小,不過近年不動產分布有向南科附近鄉村區發展的趨勢。
The changes in land-use pattern usually have impacts on real estate prices. This study analyzes the changes in spatial distribution of real estate prices in adjacent areas of Tainan Science Park during 2001 to 2009. The results show that high-priced real estates were spatially concentrated in Shanhua’s CBD, but have spread toward east of Provincial Highway No. 1 along County Highway No. 178 and also toward northern areas along Guangfu Road. Sinshih’s CBD is the closest to the Tainan Science Park, but the distribution of high price real estates is not much difference over the years. The lower price real estates were concentrated in Anding’s CBD. The results of hedonic price model show that the total floor area and the number of story of the property have most important and significant influences on real estate prices. In addition, the annual number of employment in the Tainan Science Park has significantly positive impact on real estate prices in adjacent areas. In a comparison of the hedonic price model results and the spatial regression model results, it was found that there is not significant difference between these models’ goodness-of-fit. It probably because there exists a spatial segregation between the Tainan Science Park area and adjacent townships and as a result the spatial impact of the Science Park was not expected on real estate prices. Moreover, higher price real estates were concentrated in Shanhua’s CBD rather than around the Tainan Science Park. It was found that more new houses were built in around the Science Park but were closer to Shanhua’s CBD. Lower price real estates were concentrated in Shinshih towship and also new houses were concentrated in Anding towards the Tainan Science Park.