淹水地區救災能量配置模糊決策支援系統之研究 -以臺南市為例

The Decision Support System of Relief Energy Configuration for Flooded Areas via the Fuzzy AHP method – for Example of Tainan, Taiwan

鄭誌峰(Chih-Feng Cheng)

指導教授 ： 紀雲曜

長榮大學/管理學院/土地管理與開發學系(所)/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6833/CJCU.2012.00083

摘要

摘要
臺灣位處西太平洋屬亞熱帶國家，每年夏秋之際，正是颱風來襲的時刻，面對全球極端氣候變遷，過去認為異常的「暴雨」，似已逐漸「常態化」，颱風所挾帶雨量屢創紀錄。鑑於民國九十八年八月八日莫拉克颱風來襲，所挾帶的雨量重創了原台南市及台南縣，造成廣大面積的淹水災害，亦造成了重大損失及人命傷亡；亦突顯臺南地區消防人力不足及調派之問題。臺南市政府消防局針對莫拉克颱風造成消防救災能量是否適當有效訂定「臺南市易淹水地區超前部署消防救災能量配置」及「大臺南淹水潛勢地區消防整備力及防救策略報告」以期現有消防救災能量能發揮最大功效。
本研究提出以模糊層級分析法(Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process，FAHP)為淹水地區救災能量配置建立模糊決策系統之架構，針對影響消防救災能量（裝備、人力）透過模糊德爾菲（F.D.M）及模糊層級（F.A.H.P）專家問卷進行以淹水保全人數、淹水戶數、淹水範圍、淹水延時及淹水歷史等五個評估項目以及弱勢避難者等十八個影響因子進行各模糊權重之確立，以建立模糊決策支援系統，並驗證「臺南市易淹水地區超前部署消防救災能量配置」的適合性。
本研究藉由建立淹水地區救災能量配置模糊決策支援系統之研究訂定出一套可供各縣市消防單位及災害應變中心對於淹水災害搶救人力、機具如何妥善配置調度之參考依據，以期達到最有效率之救災能量配置；並建議各防災單位應制定相關因應對策，在現有救災能量不足情況下，以事先預防規劃、疏散避難，以取代救災能量不足情形，使其淹水防災工作能更加完備。

關鍵字

淹水 ； 消防 ； 救災能量 ； 模糊理論

並列摘要

Abstract
Taiwan is a subtropical countries in the Western Pacific, an annual summer and fall is the typhoon moment, in the face of extreme global climate change, in the past the unusual "storm", appears to have gradually "normalized", the typhoons backdrop of rainfallrecord the record. In view of the August 8, 2008, 2002, Typhoon Morakot struck the backdrop of the rainfall hit the former Tainan City and Tainan County, resulting in large areas of flooding disasters, but also caused significant damage and casualties; also highlights the Tainan regional fire human and deployed to the problems. Tainan City Fire Department for Morakot caused the fire relief energy is appropriate and effective set「Tainan easy to flooded areas make arrangements ahead of the fire disaster relief energy configuration」and「Tainan flooding potential fire force preparedness and prevention and relief strategy report」energ of existing fire relief formaximum effectiveness.
This study proposes a fuzzy Level Analysis (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process,FAHP) for flooded areas and relief energy configuration to establish the framework of fuzzy decision-making system for the impact of fire disaster relief energy (equipment, people) through Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) and fuzzy level (FAHP) expert questionnaire to flooding preservation of the number, the number of households flooded, flooding rang, flooding delay and flooding history of the five assessment project , as well as vulnerable asylum seekers of 18 impact factor such as the fuzzy weights. Established, to build the fuzzy decision support system, and verify that「Tainan easy flooded region ahead of the deployment of fire relief energy configuration」suitability.
In this study, fuzzy decision support system is configured by creating the relief energy of the flooded areas and set out a set of available city and county fire units and Disaster Response Center for the flooding disaster rescue people, equipment how to properly configure the scheduling of reference to to achieve the most efficient relief energy configuration; and recommended that disaster prevention unit should be developed related to coping strategies, in the case of the existing lack of relief energy in order to advance prevention programs, evacuation, to replace the relief energy shortage situation,for flooding prevention efforts more complete.

並列關鍵字

Flooding ； Fire ； Relief Energy ； Fuzzy Theory

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