產品於世代交替下之最適價格與保固期決策模式

本論文提出產品於世代交替下之利潤最大化模式，探討產品具世代交替特性下，廠商應如何在銷售期間動態調整價格與保固政策，以獲得最大利潤。在產品成本分析當中，為計算產品於保固下之單位生產成本，本論文透過更新函數計算產品壽命服從指數與韋伯分佈下之產品期望更新次數，當單位生產成本可知且獲得銷售量之資訊時，可利用本模式評估各世代產品銷售最大利潤。此外，產品世代交替下亦有一重要特性，即產品於世代交替下會有前後世代相互影響累積銷售量之現象，此特性可常見於目前許多科技產品市場。本論文假設產品乃採用免費取代保固政策，此種保固政策為目前許多資訊產品所採行，採用原因在於廠商在處理客戶因產品失效而行索賠事件中，對產品進行維修之成本可能高於直接更換新品。本論文所提出之產品世代交替下利潤最大化模式透過最佳化理論推導獲得如下建議：(1)當產品銷售量屬於成長時期，建議可調高產品售價與保固期，若銷售量屬於衰退階段，則應降低售價與縮短保固；(2)採行動態定價與靜態保固期時，倘能降低產品失效率，就算提供較長之保固期導致單位生產成本提升，但仍可獲得較大之總利潤。

關鍵字

擴散理論；產品保固；產品生命週期；最佳化理論

並列摘要

The present thesis proposed a model of maximum profit for successive generations of products, and discussed the sellers how to adjust the price and warranty policy dynamically in sales period. In warranty cost analysis, the present study adopted the renewal function with product lifetimes for the exponential and weibull distributions to calculate the expected number of replacement. When we know the unit produced cost and the sales volume, we can use the model to evaluate the maximum profit of each generation. Otherwise, there is an important characteristic in the successive generations of products, that the cumulative sales of the previous generation and the successive one will be influenced on each other, and we can see this situation in recent high-technology product markets. The present thesis assumed the products under free-replacement warranty policy, and this kind of warranty policy is adopted recently by many technology products cause of the higher cost of repair than replacement in claim event. The model of maximum profit for successive generations of products in this thesis provided the following suggestions by the inference with optimal control theory: (1) we should adjust higher price and longer warranty during the period of sales growth of products and lower price and shorter warranty during the period of sales decline of products; (2) when taking the dynamically pricing and static warranty length, the seller will probably gain more total profit by decreasing the failure rate of products even if provides longer warranty to lead to increase unit produced cost.

並列關鍵字

Diffusion theory ； Product warranty ； Product Life Cycle ； Optimal control theory

參考文獻

[1]. Bass, F. M. (1969). A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables. Management Science, 15(5), 215-227.

[2]. Baxter, L. A., Scheuer, E. M., Blischke, W. R., & McConalogue, D. J. (1981). Renewal Tables:Tables of Functions Arising in Renewal Theory.

[3]. Baxter, L. A., Scheuer, E. M., Blischke, W. R., & McConalogue, D. J. (1982). On the Tabulation of the Renewal Function. Technometrics, 24, 151-156.

[6]. Birolini, A. (1985). On the use of stochastic process in modeling reliability problems: Spring-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, Germany.

[8]. Blischke, W. R., & Scheuer, E. M. (1975). Calculation of the cost of warranty policies as a function of estimated life distributions. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 22(4), 681-696.

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產品於世代交替下之最適價格與保固期決策模式

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