整合層次分析法及決策樹於設備投資決策之實證研究

An Empirical Investigation of Decision Making on Investment of Equipment Using Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree Analysis

洪郡伶(Hung, Chun Ling)

指導教授 ： 陳建良

國立清華大學/工學院/工業工程與工程管理學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2017年)

摘要

在半導體測試廠，折舊成本在成本結構中的比例最重。由於市場需求的不確定性高且需要在短時間內進行投資決策，以及集成電路（IC）產品的生命週期為約18至24個月 (摩爾定律)，這些因素皆會影響最後投資決策的結果。過去投資計劃往往根據主觀判斷進行投資，若投資不正確可能會造成成本的上升。因此，本研究考慮市場需求和需求期間的不確定性，收集決策者認為的投資關鍵因子，並採用層次分析法(AHP)評估策略的權重，再搭配投資方案的情景規劃和決策樹(DTA)計算產品的實際成本，以決定最佳的投資方案。

關鍵字

層次分析法 ； 決策樹 ； 情景規劃 ； 半導體 ； 投資決策

並列摘要

In semiconductor testing companies, depreciation cost takes the largest part of the cost structure. Several factors result in the existing situation. Firstly, due to the uncertainty of demands, investment decisions need to be made in a short time. Secondly, some parts have relatively short period of demand. For instance, according to Moore's Law, the period of demand of an integrated circuit (IC) is about 18 to 24 months. In the past, investment plans were made subjectively; inaccurate decision might cause the increase of cost. The current study aims to formulate the best investment plan. To achieve this, the uncertainty of market demand and period of demand were taken into consideration. Alongside, key components for investment suggested by the decision-makers were collected and the weights of decision strategies were assessed using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Then, the actual cost of a product was calculated by incorporating scenario planning and decision tree analysis (DTA).

並列關鍵字

Analytic Hierarchy Process ； Decision Tree Analysis ； Scenario planning ； Semiconductor Manufacturing ； Investment Decision

參考文獻

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