從經濟學與財務觀點談教授新創事業的抉擇和挑戰----以台灣三維微結構股份有限公司為例

有別於許多的EMBA論文是分析既有產業的五力和SWOT並從中找出在競合關係中的競爭優勢和策略，本論文主要聚焦在新創事業，新創者面臨的抉擇和挑戰，特別是技術推動(Technology Push)的案例，常常必須面對在還沒有任何市場的情況下做決策。創業維艱，根據經濟部的統計，一般民眾創業一年內就倒閉的機率高達90%，五年內剩下存活的10%又有90%倒閉，由數據就可以知道，創業的風險極高。若是高新技術的創業，因為尚未有現存市場，則風險更大。以成功掛牌做為創業粗略成功的指標，在美國成功的機率大約是0.01%。新創事業就像新生兒而一樣，嗷嗷待哺，剛開始不具強韌的生存能力，必需經過環境的淬煉，生出堅強的求生意志和智慧。若一個國家新創事業夭折率高，只有老企業可以續存，最後的結果就會和人口一樣，產業逐漸老化，慢慢失去活力。教授和研究生具有得天獨厚的創業環境。教授的養成時間很長，具備深厚的專業技能，對全世界特定前瞻技術的發展有敏銳的嗅覺。大學的環境特殊，教授和研究生可以在自由的風氣下，任意發揮創意而不受短期的營運目標影響，因此是新創極佳的溫床，也是在全球產業高速變化的狂瀾下，台灣產業新生的一個機會。為了讓教授和研究生團隊在新創事業上的成功率增高，本論文希望從經濟學和財務的觀點，以教授新創事業為假想，提供可能方法，希望能夠回答，在有了特定技術後，甚麼時間點該創業? 除了技術外，該著力於何處? 何時才是市場成熟的時機? 什麼樣的階段適合留在學校繼續培育，達到什麼樣的規模後，適合進入產業? 本論文將以未來可能成立的台灣三維微結構股份有限公司為例，介紹其技術發展的脈絡，未來潛在的應用，可能的市場。並以簡單的數字，預測這家公司的平均總成本(ATC)，邊際成本(MC)，用管理經濟學的角度，從市場的價格供需與規模，預測公司是否具有競爭力和獲利機會，來判斷成立公司的合適性和時點。此外，也從財會角度，分析在假設情況下公司未來潛在的價值，與教授及研究生職涯的現值(PV)做比較，做為可能決策的依據。

關鍵字

新創公司；教授新創公司；策略管理；財務

並列摘要

In contrast to many EMBA theses which try to identify competitive advantages and strategies from coopetition by analyzing Porter’s five forces and SWOT, this thesis focuses mainly on startup businesses. It is common for founders in startup businesses to face decision making and challenges in situations where no existing market exists, especially in the case of “Technology Push”. Starting up successful new businesses is very difficult; according to statistics from the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA), the probability of failure of new businesses is as high as 90% for the general public. In addition, among the 10% which survive, another 90% of them will fail within 5 years. Therefore, given the data, the risk of starting up new businesses is extremely high. If the startup business is in the field of high technology, the risk is even higher because an existing market does not currently exist. Using successful IPO as a rough indicator of success, the probability of success in the United States is approximately 0.01%. Startup businesses are like newborns, waiting to be fed and nurtured. At first, it does not have a strong ability to survive. It must undergo challenges and refinement from the environment and develop wisdom and a strong will to survive. If the failure rate of startup businesses is high in a country and only existing companies can persist, in the end, its industries will be just like its population, gradually aging and losing vitality. Professors and graduate students have a unique entrepreneurial environment. It takes a long time to develop a university professor for him or her to have deep level of professional skills and expertise and to develop a keen sense of specific forward-looking technologies globally. Under the liberal environment of the special university environment, professors and graduate students can develop their creativity at will without being constrained by short term operational objectives. Therefore, it is an excellent breeding ground for start-ups. It is also an opportunity for the regeneration of Taiwan’s industry given the impact of rapid changes in global industries. To increase the probability of success of startups formed by professors and the graduate student team, this thesis will provide possible methods to answer the following questions using the perspective of economics and finances with regard to a professor’s startup. The list of questions includes the following: 1) With a specific technology, what is the right time to startup a new business? 2) In addition to technologies, what are other areas to focus on? 3) When is the point of market maturity? 4) Which stages are suitable for the startup to continue staying in the campus environment and upon reaching what scale is the startup suitable to leave the campus to enter the industry? This thesis uses the case of 台灣三維微結構股份有限公司 which may be established in the future to introduce the context of its technological development, the potential future applications, and possible markets. In addition, the expectation is to use a quantitative method to forecast this company’s average total cost (ATC) and marginal cost (MC) and to use the perspective of management economics to forecast whether the company will be competitive and the opportunities for profitability based on the supply and demand of market pricing and scale in order to determine the suitability and timing of setting up the company. Furthermore, the perspective of finance and accounting will be used to analyze the company’s future potential value and to compare the present value (PV) of the professor and graduate students’ professional careers as a basis for possible decision making.

並列關鍵字

Startup ； Professor Entrepreneurship ； Finance ； Management Strategy

參考文獻

[3] C. Ho, R. Lin, R. Chen, C. Chin, S. Gong, H. Chang, H. Peng, L. Hsu, T. Yew, S. Chang and C. Liu, “Liver-Cell Patterning Lab Chip: Mimicking the Morphology of Liver Lobule Tissue,” Lab on Chip 13, pp.3578-3587, 2013.

[1] 張景泓, “創業，不是買一個「自己當老闆」的工作！”, 今周刊 2013年11月。