紫式決策架構分析半導體廠商引進先進製程技術之決策及其實證研究

UNISON Decision Making Framework for Analyzing Advanced Process Technology Acquisition Decision of Semiconductor Manufacturer and Empirical Study

陳弘斌(Hung-Pin Chen)

指導教授 ： 簡禎富

國立清華大學/工學院/工業工程與工程管理學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

技術移轉可以快速取得技術並減少自行開發的時程，故在高科技產業中是常見的技術取得模式，DRAM產業因為高度技術密集與成本競爭的特性，利用先進製程技術來降低成本已成為各DRAM廠最主要的競爭方式，台灣的DRAM製造商因開發能力不足故僅能長期倚靠技術引進的方式在全球DRAM產業中生存，面對不同的技術移轉條件，DRAM廠商該如何評估與決策攸關公司的未來，故建構一有效之決策模式為本研究之動機與目的。
本研究以某DRAM製造商為實證，在市場狀況不確定的情況下，應用紫式決策分析架構建構引進先進製程決策，針對四種可行方案進行評估，此四種方案分別為代工模式、技術授權模式、產能共享模式及合資模式。首先以決策樹為價值衡量方法來評估各方案在各種不確定因素下的期望總價值，結合情境分析呈現各方案在不同情境下的可能結果，並輔以損益平衡分析了解各方案之損益平衡點，最後以敏感度分析與龍捲風圖呈現各影響因子對方案投資報酬的影響程度，提供給決策者做為決策時之風險認知。在此架構下之決策結果以合資模式為最佳方案，主要原因在於其期初投入之資本支出為技術移轉雙方共同分擔，利潤共享，雙方亦共同承擔不確定因子造成的風險，使其在不確定環境下受價格衝擊程度較小的原故。
實證結果亦發現DRAM廠商因不斷的引進先進技術，累積龐大的負債，長期供給大於需求導致市場價格低迷，不斷的引進先進製程使其現金壓力愈趨嚴重，最終對DRAM廠造成嚴重的營運問題。

關鍵字

紫式決策分析架構 ； 決策樹 ； 技術移轉 ； 技術取得 ； DRAM

並列摘要

Due to the advantages of speedy acquisition in advanced technology and R&D schedule shortening,“Technology Transfer”is formed to be a common mode of technology acquisition in high-tech industry. According to the characters of highly technology-intensive and cost-competitive in DRAM industry, DRAM manufacturers adopt advanced process technology to reduce cost, which is the main competition method in DRAM industry. However, Taiwan DRAM manufacturers choose to rely on long-term technology introduction to keep existing in global DRAM market owing to insufficient capability in R&D. When they confront various technology transfer conditions, the evaluation result and decision making are strongly relevant to DRAM manufacturers’ prosperity. Therefore, the purpose of the research focuses on structuring effective decision making model for DRAM manufacturers.
In this research, UNISON decision making framework is constructed to analyze four types of technology transfer under an uncertain market status for a DRAM corporation. The four types are foundry mode, technology licensing, capacity sharing and joint venture mode. First, decision tree is the value evaluation tool for measuring the expected monetary value of schemes. And, scenario analysis is used to point out the possible outcomes of schemes under different scenarios. Moreover, break-even analysis helps us to find out the breakeven point of schemes. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and tornado diagram show the impact extent of key influence for risk evaluation of decision making. Under this framework, the evidence shows “ joint venture mode” is the best option due to that not only are capital expenditures and profit shared by technology transfer supplier and recipient but also risk which may cause by uncertain factors is shared. Due to accountability sharing, less impact of price shocking in uncertain environments in this mode.
The empirical results of the research reveal that the DRAM corporation accumulates a huge amount of debts by continuously depending on technology transfer. Moreover, the DRAM corporation has been encountering severe pressure of cash flow and the product price is getting lower in the case of long-term supply exceeds demand. Consequently, the financial crisis causes business operational difficulties.

並列關鍵字

UNISON Decision Framework ； Decision Tree ； Technology Transfer ； Technology Acquisition ； DRAM

參考文獻

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