建構策略性產能規劃方案之決策模式

台灣的DRAM業者自2007到2011年，連續遭受到史無前例的兩度嚴重的景氣衰退後，均紛紛評估將舊有的八吋廠產能，轉進利基型晶圓代工產業。然利用現有設備轉型之業者，在市場競爭環境持續改變下，轉型晶圓代工之策略性產能規劃方案之決策，變成一個值得重視的課題。本研究以紫式決策分析架構為藍本，透過解析決策的構成決策三元素：勢、限制、決策關係人，來釐清在利基型晶圓代工產業內，策略性產能規劃之方案決策問題，定義出決策定義域。透過決策定義域找出目標集合，及建構出完整的目標層級後，融合確定性決策之分析層級程序法，及不確定性決策之決策樹方法，以建立策略性產能規劃方案之決策模式及其評估屬性的架構。透過決策模式之實證研究，本研究建構的一結合多屬性決策及不確定性決策之決策模式，能使決策者綜觀問題的產業大環境趨勢、公司的資源限制，以及顧及市場需求及價格的不確定性，透過敏感度分析後，還可建立一套可因應不同市場需求變化水準之決策準則，能使決策者能依照市場需求之趨勢判斷，做出能應用所長、避其所短的最佳方案選擇，使設備能有效利用，並進而達到長期穩健獲利的目標。

關鍵字

決策模式；紫式決策分析架構；策略性產能規劃；方案選擇；晶圓代工；分析層級程序法；決策樹

並列摘要

DRAM makers in Taiwan started to think over again about their business model after the series of incredibly market shocks from year 2007 to 2011. They try to use their own 8-inch equipments to shift their original business model to Niche wafer foundry. But, when it comes to be a Niche foundry player, the decision of strategic capacity plan within the ever-changing market will be a serious and important topic. This study, based on the UNISON decision framework, analyze the 3 decision elements (tendency, limitation, and decision stakeholders of the problem.) of the Niche wafer foundry industry, so as to decompose the decision problem of strategic capacity plan, and well define the boundary of this decision problem. After we clarify a set of objectives in this boundary, construct a hierarchy of objectives, we can combine a certain-model mothodology for decision-making (Analytic hierarchy process,AHP) with an uncertain one (decision tree), to creat a decision model and attributes for the strategic capacity plan. After an empirical study on this decision framework, we found this study which combines a certain decision model with an uncertain one, can bring us a bird’s eye view to review the trend of this industry, resources limitation of company, Moreover, it considered the uncertainty of market demands and prices. This study builds up a decision rule for different levels of market demand throughout a sensitivity study. It helps decision makers to make excellent decisions conditionally, and it will effectively utilize equipments and reach the goal of earning long-term, robust profits.

並列關鍵字

Decision Model ； UNISON Decision Framework ； Capacity Strategy ； Alternative Selection ； Wafer Foudry ； AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) ； Decision Tree

參考文獻

林繼勇、簡禎富、胡志翰（2008），紫式決策分析以建構液晶原料廠製程確效評估模式，品質學報，15卷5期，頁385-398。

張東隆 (2009)，晶圓代工產業的雙螺旋策略，國立清華大學高階經營管理碩士在職專班，98年碩士論文。

簡禎富、胡志翰（2011），全面資源管理架構－以晶圓廠為實證，品質學報，18卷5期，頁1-26。

Chien, C.-F., Wang, H. and Wang, M., (2007), A UNISON framework for analyzing alternative strategies of IC final testing for enhancing overall operational effectiveness, International Journal of Production Economics, 107, 20-30.

Keeney, R. L., (1992), Value-Focused Thinking, Harvard University Press, Cambridge.

國際替代計量

建構策略性產能規劃方案之決策模式

全文下載

主題瀏覽