臺灣跨區人口流動研究-遷徙及生育影響因素

臺灣在少子化衝擊下導致自然增加率低落，眼前人口遷徙是補足社會增加數最快的方法之一，從臺灣地區歷年人口遷徙的資料顯示，民眾偏好遷往都會區的情況造成偏鄉長年面臨人口外流的現象，因此本文欲探討影響民眾遷徙的因素究竟為何，運用政府資訊公開平台取得19個縣市於西元1998年至2019年期間人口遷徙相關的追踨資料(Panel Data)，總計蒐集4個被解釋變數及14個解釋變數，其中被解數變數分別為人均遷入人口數、人均遷出人口數、人均淨遷入人口數及人均出生登記數，另一方面則將解釋變數以經濟、教育、社會安全、宜居及其他面向進行分類，其中有關經濟、教育及社會安全視為本文主要因素分析，宜居及其他則視為次要因素探討，然後以4個不同的被解釋變數為基礎各自搭配相同的14個解釋變數而組成四組變數群，各組變數群均同時採用固定效果模型(Fixed Effect Model)及隨機效果模型(Random Effect Model)並利用統計軟體進行迴歸分析，分析的結果最終依赫斯曼檢定(Hausman Test)進行擇定，並假設除了社會安全因素及部份宜居因素(例如:稅賦、房價、空氣汙染)以外，其餘面向之因素均具有人口流動的拉力效果。實證結果發現在主要因素中，較佳的經濟條件對於遷入及淨遷入產生的正向影響符合預期，豐富的教育資源對於遷出產生的負向影響及淨遷入的正向影響除了符合預期以外亦對生育具有正向的影響，社會安全越差對於遷入及生育造成的負向影響符合預期。次要因素中，高稅賦對於遷出的正向影響及淨遷入的負向影響符合預期，高房價對於遷入及淨遷入產生的負向影響符合預期，醫療資源越佳只對於遷出的負向影響符合預期，空氣汙染對於遷入及生育造成的負向影響符合預期，交通便捷則僅對於遷出產生的負向影響符合預期，直轄市與否對於遷出所產生的負向影響及生育的正向影響符合預期。

關鍵字

自然增加率；社會增加數；追踨資料；固定效果模型；隨機效果模型；赫斯曼檢定；以腳投票

並列摘要

According to the Taiwan population migration related data in the past 20 years, we found that Taiwanese prefer immigrating to cities rather than moving to country. To analyze the real motivation for population migration, this study uses data which is derived from the website of National Statistics, R.O.C (Taiwan) and Real estate platform of Ministry of the interior to make empirical analysis. The acquisition of data includes 19 cities and counties in Taiwan from A.D.1998 to 2019 as panel data mode. Totally, collecting 4 dependent variables and 14 independent variables. Furthermore, the variables would been classified into 4 groups based on dependent variables. In addition, each group would involve different dependent variables but same 14 independent variables. Then using the fixed effect model and random effect model simultaneously on each group to make regression analysis through the statistic software, choosing the empirical analysis result based on Hausman Test in the end. Initially, this study hypothesizes the pull force of floating population could be caused by the better condition of economy, education, medical resources, traffic and municipality. On the contrary, the factors of worse social security, heavy taxation, high price of house, air pollution would be considered as the push power of floating population. As a result, the empirical results shows that better economic environment would increase immigration and net in-migrant. Good educational resources would decrease emigration but increase net in-migrant and fertility. Worse social security would cause the disadvantage of immigration and fertility. Heavy taxation would result in higher emigration and lower net in-migrant. High price of house could lead to lower immigration and net in-migrant. Richer medical resources and convenient traffic would make an impact on reduction of emigration. Air pollution would decrease immigration and fertility. Municipality would cause the decrease of emigration and the increase of fertility.