失業率是否影響離婚率？以不同子群體失業率的研究

文獻上已證實失業率顯著的影響離婚率，但不同子群體失業率對離婚率的影響則較少被觸及，本文嘗試補足過去研究的缺口，採用全臺22縣市在1998至2018年，計21年的追蹤資料來評估不同性別、不同年齡層及不同教育程度失業率與離婚率的關連性。在OLS及Panel 迴歸模型研究顯示，失業率對離婚率為顯著的正向影響，從更細緻的角度來看，女性失業率、45-64歲失業率及高中教育程度失業率對離婚率皆有顯著正向影響。從各縣市政府施政角度來看，為了減少不穩定因子的可能性，在有限財力及資源的條件下不僅要以提高就業率的方式而非依靠美化數字來降低失業人口，且在考慮轄內資源或條件下對適當行業積極招商，擴大就業市場，更可以對轄內家庭出現女性、45-64歲或高中學歷工作者的失業情況時，提供適切諮詢管道，以降低轄內家庭離婚風險。其他控制變數如一般生育率可能有顯著負向影響，而無酬家屬工作者比率可能有顯著正向影響。以上兩者可納入縣市政府社會穩定政策制定的考量，活用多面向配套措施，利用有限財源讓政策效果最大化。對一般生育率而言，政府可採用有效推升生育率的方式降低離婚率；對無酬家屬工作者比率而言，政府應鼓勵就業者走出舒適圈，積極面對挑戰，培養職場能力，避免失去求職競爭力，減少失業帶來的離婚風險。

關鍵字

離婚率；失業率；生育率；無酬家屬工作者

並列摘要

This study explores the impact of different subgroups of unemployment rate on divorce rate. The subgroups include the unemployment rate by gender, age and education. A panel of 22 county-level data from 1998 to 2018 in Taiwan is employed to empirically evaluate the association between divorce rate and different unemployment rates. The OLS and panel FE results show that unemployment rate has a significantly positive effect on divorce rate. By subgroups, unemployment rate of female, 45-64 years old and high school degree are all significantly and positively related to divorce rate. In order to reduce the possibility of instability factors, the better way to lower the unemployment rate increases not only employment rates but also investment in appropriate industries to expand the employment market under the conditions of limited finance and resources of jurisdiction. It can also provide appropriate consultation channels to decrease the risk of divorce of household within the jurisdiction when there is unemployed situation on female, 45-64 years old, and high school degree workers. Other control variables such as general fertility rate may have a significant negative impact, while the ratio of unpaid family workers may have a significant positive impact. Both can be included in the consideration of the county government’s social stability policies, and maximize the effectiveness of the policy in limited financial resources by multi-faceted supporting measures. The government can effectively increase the general fertility rate to reduce the divorce rate. For the ratio of unpaid family workers, the government should encourage employees to step out of the comfort zone, actively face challenges, develop workplace capabilities, and avoid the lack of competitiveness in job search and reduce the risk of divorce caused by unemployment.