合併報表中大陸地區投資盈餘與大陸以外地區投資盈餘之評價

Differential Value-Relevance of Earnings from Operations in Taiwan, Mainland China, and Other Areas for Taiwan Listed Companies

李敏寧(Min-Ning Lee)

指導教授 ： 林維珩

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2001年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200100035

摘要

論 文 摘 要
本研究係實證調查將盈餘分解為國內盈餘、大陸地區盈餘與大陸以外地區之國外盈餘是否具有資訊內涵，以為國內盈餘、大陸地區盈餘、大陸以外地區之國外盈餘與企業評價之關聯性提供直接的證據。本研究之問題為：(1)盈餘分解為國內盈餘與國外盈餘是否具有資訊內涵；(2)盈餘分解為國內盈餘、大陸地區盈餘與大陸以外地區之國外盈餘是否具有資訊內涵；(3)國外盈餘反應係數大於國內盈餘反應係數是否係成長機會所致。本研究之方法係以累積異常報酬為因變數，未預期每股盈餘變動、未預期每股國內盈餘變動、未預期每股國外盈餘變動、未預期每股大陸地區盈餘變動與未預期每股大陸以外地區之國外盈餘變動為自變數，以迴歸分析方法進行本研究之資料統計分析。實證結果如下：
一、證實外銷比率小的公司，盈餘分解為國內盈餘與國外盈餘具有增額資訊內涵，盈餘解釋報酬之能力提高很多(至少解釋能力達27%)，且國外盈餘反應係數顯著地大於國內盈餘反應係數；而外銷比率大的公司，投資人對國內盈餘與國外盈餘的解讀是一樣的，故無需將盈餘加以區分。
二、證實外銷比率小的公司，分解盈餘為國內盈餘、大陸地區盈餘與大陸以外地區之國外盈餘具有增額資訊內涵，盈餘解釋報酬之能力亦提高很多(達55%)，且大陸地區盈餘反應係數顯著的大於國內盈餘反應係數。
三、證實匯率並非是國外盈餘反應係數大於國內盈餘反應係數之因素，至於成長機會由於採用銷貨成長率作為其代理變數，以及本研究期間僅一年，故可能並未捕捉到真正的成長機會，亦即有可能存在著衡量誤差，故實證結果並不支持國外盈餘反應係數大於國內盈餘反應係數是成長機會之故。
本研究受限於研究期間僅為一年，故樣本量較少，且匯率變數與成長變數均採用代理變數，故可能係衡量誤差之存在，致使結果不如預期。

關鍵字

盈餘反應係數 ； 成長機會 ； 大陸地區盈餘 ； 國外盈餘 ； 資訊內涵

並列摘要

ABSTACT
Present study decomposes total earnings according to their geographical sources as earnings from domestic operations, earnings from Mainland China operations, and earnings from operations in overseas other than Mainland China. The theme of the study is to investigate differential information contents of domestic and foreign components of total earnings from firm valuation perspectives. The first research question concerns the association between changes in the domestic and foreign components of earnings with changes in the market value of the firm. Foreign earnings are hypothesized to be related to firm value stronger than the domestic counterparts. The second research question tests the existence of information contents of the components of earnings from domestic operations, from Mainland China operations, and from overseas operations other than Mainland China. The stronger association between foreign earnings components with firm value than the domestic counterparts is further explained via differential growth opportunities. The cumulative excess returns are regressed on the above-mentioned earnings components in order to study the hypothesized cross-sectional associations.
The empirical results are as follows:
1. Both foreign and domestic earnings changes are significantly positively associated with annual excess return measures, and the association for foreign earnings are significantly larger than that for domestic earnings after controlling percentage of export sales. For firms with large percentage of revenue generated from exports, there is no difference between the associations of foreign earnings and firm value and that of domestic earnings and firm value.
2. Earnings from domestic operations, from Mainland China operations, and from overseas other than Mainland China are all positively associated with annual excess return measures for low export sale percentage sub-sample. The decomposition into three geographical sources also enhances R2 significantly. Another salient result is that earnings response coefficient for earnings from Mainland China operations is higher than that of for earnings from domestic operations.
3. After adjusting effects of exchange rate on foreign earnings changes, the earnings response coefficient for foreign operations remains significantly larger than that of domestic operations. Using respective foreign and domestic sales growth rates as proxies for the foreign and domestic growth opportunities of the firm, the larger coefficient for foreign earnings cannot be explained by differential growth opportunities. Measurement errors and short period under investigation may contribute to the failure.

並列關鍵字

Mainland China earnings ； Foreign earnings ； Earnings Response Coefficient ； Information Content ； Growth Opportunities

參考文獻

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