拆解盈餘預測獲利能力之研究-以台灣上市公司為例

Using Disaggregated Earnings Approach to Forecast Changes in Profitability-the Case of Taiwan Listed Companies

湯琇琳(Hsiu-Lin Tang)

指導教授 ： 鄭淩淇

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200800458

摘要

本研究係將盈餘進行拆解，以評估未來獲利之預測能力。研究之問題有二：一、將盈餘拆解為資產週轉率及營業利益率，可否提升未來獲利之預測能力；二、將盈餘拆解為資產週轉率及營業利益率，電子產業之預測能力可否高於非電子產業。所謂未來獲利能力，本研究定義為未來三年資產報酬率變動數之平均值。而本研究將樣本區分成電子產業及非電子產業二類，以三個迴歸式進行統計分析，迴歸式1為未拆解盈餘前之模型；迴歸式2為將盈餘拆解為資產週轉率及營業利益率之模型；迴歸式3為將盈餘拆解為資產週轉率變動數及營業利益率變動數之模型。實證結果如下：
1、以全部產業來看，將資產報酬率變動數拆解成資產週轉率變動數，可提高未來獲利之預測能力，但將資產報酬率變動數拆解成營業利益率變動數，未增加未來獲利之預測能力。
2、以電子產業來看，將資產報酬率變動數拆解成資產週轉率及營業利益率，可提高未來獲利之預測能力；將資產報酬率變動數拆解成資產週轉率變動數，可提高未來獲利之預測能力，且預測能力高於拆解成資產週轉率及營業利益率；將資產報酬率變動數拆解成營業利益率變動數，未提高未來獲利之預測能力。
3、以非電子產業來看，拆解資產報酬率變動數，未提高未來獲利之預測能力。

關鍵字

盈餘拆解 ； 資產報酬率

並列摘要

This research seeks to use disaggregated earnings approach to forecast changes in profitability，defined as the change in return on assets. First we disaggregate the change in return on assets into asset turnover and profit margin. Second we disaggregate the change in return on assets into the change in asset turnover and the change in profit margin. And we hypothesize electronic industry has better predictive ability than non-electronic industry.
The conclusion of this research：
1、For all industry，disaggregating the change in return on assets into the change in asset turnover is useful in forecasting the change in return on assets future，but disaggregating the change in return on assets into the change in profit margin does not provide incremental information for forecasting the change in return on assets future.
2、For electronic industry，disaggregating the change in return on assets into asset turnover and profit margin is useful in forecasting the change in return on assets future. Disaggregating the change in return on assets into the change in asset turnover is also useful，but disaggregating the change in return on assets into the change in profit margin does not provide incremental information for forecasting the change in return on assets future.
3、For non-electronic industry，using disaggregated earnings approach to forecast changes in profitability does not provide incremental information.

並列關鍵字

return on assets ； disaggregation

參考文獻

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