灰色系統與模糊理論在旬入流量預測之研究

Application of Grey System and Fuzzy Theory on Ten-day Inflows Forecasting

廖珩毅(Heng-Yi Liao)

指導教授 ： 王安培

中原大學/工學院/土木工程研究所/碩士(2001年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200100180

摘要

旬流量的預報對水庫水量的分配來說相當重要，對水庫操作者而言，如果能更準確預測旬流量，對水庫水位的操作及水資源更有效率的運用有很大的幫助。但是，由於臺灣特殊的氣候和地形，夏季颱風影響下，使年雨量大約有78%集中於夏、秋兩季。旬流量要準確預測實在非常困難，預測的準確度都不高。
本文之目的是利用灰色模糊系統模式預測石門水庫旬入流量。以微分水文灰色模式DHGM、灰色源模型GM(1,1)、ARX模式三種模式作為旬流量的預測。發現使用灰色源模型GM(1,1)的旬流量預測效果最佳，尤其在非汛期時期，GM(1,1)的旬流量可準確預測，但在汛期期間，GM(1,1)因為颱風對旬流量影響很大，旬流量預測不佳。因此，本文以灰色結合模糊理論模糊理論提出灰色模糊系統模式(GFSM)，找出颱風對石門水庫旬入流量之影響模糊隸屬度，配合灰色系統的預測以期增加旬流量推估之精準性，發現汛期的旬流量預測比GM(1,1)要準確。本文比較四種模式，GFSM旬流量的預測可作為水庫操作運轉參考。

關鍵字

灰色系統 ； 灰色源模型 ； 微分水文灰色模式(DHGM) ； 模糊隸屬度 ； 模糊評判

並列摘要

Forecasting ten-day inflows is very important for reservoir operators. It would be a great help if the ten-day inflows can be estimated accurately. In Taiwan, roughly 78% of its yearly rainfall concentrates in the summer and autumn because of its particular climate and geographic characteristics. That is why forecasting ten-day inflows becomes a difficult work and hardly reaches satisfactory accuracy.
The purpose of this paper is to forecast ten-day inflows of Shih-Men reservoir by using grey fuzzy system theory. The Differential Hydrological Grey Model (DHGM) and Grey Model GM(1,1) are both used to forecast ten-day inflows. Estimations by gray system theory would be compared with results by ARX model. The simulated results by using GM(1,1) can reached better accuracy, especially during the non-flood period. During the flood period, ten-day inflows are usually hard to estimate because there are so many disturbances caused by Typhoons. We expect the accuracy of gray system ten-day inflows forecasting will be significantly improved by modifying the estimation in use of fuzzy Typhoon membership degree that was established by the fuzzy theory and fuzzy decision making method. Four models, differential hydrological grey model (DHGM), Grey model (GM(1,1)), ARX model and Grey Fuzzy system model (GFSM) are all used to forecast ten-day inflows, respectively. The results shows that GFSM is a best model, and this paper may be used to estimate ten-day inflows for reservoir operators.

並列關鍵字

Grey System ； GFSM ； Fuzzy Decision Making ； DHGM ； GM(1 1) ； Fuzzy Membership Function

參考文獻

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