模糊決策在水庫操作之應用

Fuzzy Decision Analysis for Reservior Operation

王安培(An-Pei Wang) ； 鄭博文(Bo-Wei Cheng)

《中原學報》 26卷3期 (1998/08) Pp. 17-25

https://doi.org/10.6358/JCYU.199808.0017

摘要

本文以石門水庫為例，建立一套颱風來臨前水庫起始水位之決策分析模式。首先考慮四個決策因子對石門水庫的影響程度，並以模糊綜合決策方法，分析該時期每個決策因子對水庫影響的綜合程度；另外，提出颱風路徑分類的新方法，以r、θ兩個因子描述颱風路徑的特性，並以經驗法則定出對石門水庫的影響程度。文中以模糊綜合決策判斷颱風發布後對石門水庫影響的危險等級，並利用「分級水位」的概念，以「G-分級水位」判斷颱風來臨前的水庫起始水位。最後並以民國85年之葛樂禮颱風及賀伯颱風做為演算實例，結果發現本文之決策分析可供決策者做為參考。

關鍵字

隸屬度 ； 模糊統計 ； 模糊綜合決策 ； 水庫防洪操作 ； 分級防洪水位

並列摘要

The purpose of this thesis is to build a decision-analysis-model for the initial operation storage of the Shihmem reservoir before flood occurs. In decision analysis, we consider the influences of four decision factor to the Shihmem Reservoir, and to analyze the comprehensive influences of each decision factor using fuzzy comprehensive assessment method. A new method is proposed by classifying the track of typhoon with two decision factors r andθ, and then the influence of typhoon to Shihmen Reservoir is set up by experi-mental rule. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment method is applied to decide the dangerous grade of Shihmen Reservoir after the typhoon alarm is sounded. The concept of “grade flood storage” which discussed the “F-flood storage” and “G-flood storage” is used to judge the initial operation storage of a reservoir before the flood. Finally, typhoon Gloria(1996)and typhoon Herb(1996) are taken as example to calculate the reservoir flood storage. It is found that this new decision analyze method is a useful reference material for reservoir operators.。

並列關鍵字

Membership Function ； Fuzzy Statistics ； Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment ； Reservoir Flood Control ； Grade Flood Storage.