亞洲單一貨幣機制(ACU)可行性之研究─以亞洲各國總體經濟變數關連性為例

The Evaluation Analysis of Asian Currency Unit (ACU) Mechanism –The Study of Integration for Asian Countries Economic Variables

陳淑茹(shu-ju chen)

指導教授 ： 陳若暉

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2001年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200100206

摘要

歐洲國家在長達40年，致力於推動經濟整合，於1999年1月1日歐元〝EURO〞正式邁入了世界舞台，歐元之問世不但改變了以美元為主宰的世紀，預期將使國際金融市場產生結構性之變革，進而改變全球金融與經貿版圖。相對於歐盟的區域性經濟及貨幣整合，亞洲國家因缺乏有效的經濟組織為屏障，而成為投機客狙擊對象。如何作好資本移動管理，吸引國際資金，穩定匯率，並提升競爭力，乃為當前所需。有見於亞洲貨幣之整合與單一貨幣成立，除有助於與美元歐元分庭抗衡外，以區域合作觀念，尚可降低交易成本與擴大經濟規模等優點，建構亞元，實為推動亞洲國家在經貿上緊密結合、健全經濟體系，促使亞洲各國產生共同利益、人民福祉之一大途徑。
本研究乃參考歐元整合方式及其中心匯率，以台灣、香港、南韓、新加坡、日本、泰國、印尼、馬來西亞、菲律賓及中國大陸九國十種貨幣兌美元匯率，取1992年3月2日至2000年6月30日為樣本期間，並以其出口總值、淨外匯存底及每人之國民生產毛額，加權平均建構出ACU中心匯率。在取得亞洲九國之短期利率、通貨膨脹率變動及股票指數間之總體經濟指標變數，以探討及測試ACU與各國間總體經濟相關變數之關連性其長期共整性，相互驗證分析。研究方法為：1.研擬整合亞洲單一貨幣機制之一籃通貨，及其中心匯率。2.以單根檢定，測試亞洲單一貨幣(ACU)是否具恒定性。3.利用Granger因果關係檢定，以探討ACU與各國短期利率、通貨膨脹率變動、股市股票指數間，總體經濟指標變數之因果關連性。4.使用Johansen共整合檢定方法，加以檢定ACU與各國相關總體經濟變數間之長期均衡共整合關係。5.以VAR模式之特性，加以測試亞洲各國間總體經濟相關變數，何者對ACU之變動解釋能力較強及其收斂效果。
本研究冀望以實證結果以提倡亞洲單一貨幣(ACU)之理念，為亞元催生，並用實證強調亞洲單一貨幣(ACU)整合機制之可行性，期以ACU之建構，以防範未來金融危機再度發生進而增加亞洲各國經貿之聯繫，以提升全亞洲人民之福祉。

關鍵字

最適通貨 ； ACU ； 亞洲單一貨幣 ； 亞元 ； 貨幣整合

並列摘要

The European countries have been devoted in the integration of economy for almost 40 years, and European dollars “EURO” formally went to the stage of the world on January lst, 1999. The existence of the European dollars has not only changed the status of century which had been mostly controlled by US dollars, but also be expected to bring structural reform to the international financial market, and will change the scopes of global finance and trade. Be contrasted with the integration of European community’s economy and currency, the Asian countries have become the target to be assassinated by some speculators, because of the lack of efficient economic organizations. How to operate a good capital transfer management system, to attract international funds, to stabilize exchange rate, and to enhance the competition have become urgent needs for now. As the integration of Asian currency and the establishment of single currency unit are helpful to cope with the US and European dollars. Besides, in the opinion of regional cooperation, it may incur advantages to reduce the cost of trade and expand the economy scale, etc. To create of Asian dollars is truly efficient method to propel Asian countries to be tied closely in a sound economy system. This may cause Asian countries benefit common interests.
This study refers to a form of Euro and its central rate, taking samples of nine countries and ten currencies, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and China. The period expands from March 2, 1992 to June 30, 2000 and central rate of the Asian Currency Unit ( ACU ) is completely weighted with export, net reserves, and GNP per capita. After taking the short- term interest rate, inflation rate and stock index of nine Asian countries’, we analyzed the correlations and long-term Cointegration of ACU and other macroeconomic factors. We used the method as follows : ( 1 ) To create the Asian single currency unit as one basket currency and its central rate. ( 2 ) To use Unit Root test to check whether the Asian Currency Unit is stationary or no-stationary. ( 3 ) By means of Granger’s Causality Test to probe into the relations among ACU, short-term interest rate, inflation rate and stock markets index. ( 4 ) By using Johansen’s Co-integration method, we examined the cointegration in the long-term equilibrium for ACU and other macroeconomic factors. ( 5 ) We utilized VAR model to find out which macroeconomic factors have a robust result with respective to ACU and their converge effects.
This study expected to advocate the idea of Asian Currency Unit. We emphased with empirical evidences in order to enhance the integration system of Asian Currency Unit ( ACU ). We hoped to build up ACU to prevent financial crisis , to accelerate the growth of Asian counties’ economy and trade, and to promote the welfare of all Asian people in the future.

並列關鍵字

Asian dollars ； Integration of Asian currency. ； Asian Currency Unit

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