全民健康保險安全準備金最佳投資組合之實證研究

The Optimal Portfolio of Safety Reserves in Taiwan’s National Health Insurance

吳妙真(miao-jen wu)

指導教授 ： 俞海琴

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2001年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200100507

摘要

全民健康保險自八十四年開辦以來，已使全民不分性別、收入、年齡、職業均得到妥善的醫療照顧。然日漸成長的醫療費用，已使開辦以來未調漲的保險費日漸入不敷出。
在健保局有一筆金額約略維持在一至三個月醫療保險給付總額(約為250億~750億)的安全準備金，其目的是為了應付短絀的保險費收入。本文即在探討安全準備金的投資績效，以Markowitz平均數變異數理論為主軸，設計的八種不同的投資情境，分別探討在不同的情境下的效率前緣曲線與最佳投資組合。
綜合本研究之發現，可歸納為以下幾項結論：
一、 可設定5%－7%報酬率的追求目標。
二、 以二次式迴歸方程式驗證本研究理論假設，得到結果是16個樣本，12個顯著，4 個不顯著，間接說明本研究結果是具參考價值的。
三、 封閉型基金的投資績效優於開放型基金。投資時應購買不同類型的基金，以分散風險。
四、 追求5%的報酬率，不受到法規的限制與外在大環境的影響，均可達到。
五、 無任何法規限制條件下，報酬率較佳、風險較低。然因安全準備金的資金特性首重流動性，而股票、基金屬中長期投資工具，報酬風險波動大，不適短期操作，短期變現恐有困難。是故，仍建議對股票、基金設若干投資限制。

關鍵字

安全準備金 ； 全民健康保險 ； 效率前緣 ； 最佳投資組合

並列摘要

Taiwan’s National Health Insurance program has provided complete and proper medical care to most of the 23 million people on the island regardless age, income, occupation or background. But growing medical spending has become a burden to the government-run program, given that the premium has not been raised since national health insurance was established in 1995. Scholars have suggested implementing financial management to prevent the insurance program from becoming a “financial black hole.”

The National Health Insurance Bureau has a safety reserves of NT$25-75 bn, sufficient to cover temporary income shortfalls for approximately one to three months. This thesis will analyze the fund’s investment plans and efforts to seek the best rate of return.

This thesis adopts the Markowitz average covariance theory to design eight scenarios to find the efficient frontier and optimal portfolio.

The study shows that the fund’s return can be better secured and its investment risk lowered in an environment with no regulations. However, it also suggests a need to set a ceiling on investment in high-risk instruments, such as stocks.

The regression formula is also used in this thesis to test if the hypothesis is viable, and the results show that 12 out of the 16 samples used in the study are positive, confirming that the study is a useful reference for the bureau’s financial management.

The study shows that a five-percent return is attainable under the current regulations. A further relaxation of the regulations would help the insurance fund reach a five to seven percent return.

並列關鍵字

Optimal portfolio ； Efficient Frontier ； Health Insurance ； safety Reserve

參考文獻

中央健康保險局，1995，全民健康保險法要輯，中央健康保險局。

楊志良，1995，健康保險，巨流圖書公司出版。

黃坤賢，1998，產險公司投資組合之研究，私立元智大學管理研究所

Asset Allocation”, Journal of Portfolio Management

Cullen, Lisa Reilly(1999), Building the the Perfert Portfolio,