探討金融控股公司的企業價值與風險評估-以台灣保險業為例

The Study of Business Value and Risk Measurement in Financial Holding Company-Evidence of Insurance industry in Taiwan

張美玉(Mei-yu Chang)

指導教授 ： 胡為善

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2002年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200200148

摘要

「摘要」
台灣這十年來金融機構有重大之改變，由於跨業經營已是國際間金融業整合之趨勢，加入世界貿易組織(WTO)後，金融業必然面臨與先進國家相互角逐金融市場之局面，因此，我國金融控股公司法的設立將付予國內金融機構進行整合、轉型的機制，讓其更具競爭力。而合併牽涉到換股比率的計算，企業價值與風險的評估，都是重要之課題。
本研究之標的為以保險業為主成立金融控股公司的富邦及國泰集團，對於各子公司價值之計算採三階段現金流量折現模式，依情境分析法估計其區間價值，再依各子公司占金控公司比例推算金控公司之價值。金控公司採異業結合之方式設立，探討以保險業跨業經營銀行、證券、是否會影響金融控股公司之系統風險，對保險業本身是否有風險分散效果，及金控公司上市後的股價的變化，做為成立金控公司時之參考。
本研究結果如下：一、以現金流量三階段評價模式結果可供金控公司進行換股時評估標的公司價值之參考依據。二、金控公司之區間價值，大致上與主體公司的價值相等，應再加入互補性更強之異業。三、以淨值報酬相關性分析的研究結果顯示，金控公司由保險業跨業經營銀行、證券具有風險分散效果，而使總風險下降。四、以現金流量三階段折現模式所計算的理論區間價格較接近市價，可做為上市承銷價格之參考。

關鍵字

股價異常報酬 ； 現金流量折現法 ； 風險分散效果 ； 一次購足

並列摘要

[Abstract]
The has been a great change in the financial institutions of Taiwan. Because it is the trend to cross running business within the integration of the banks. Along with joining WTO, the banks in Taiwan will have a fierce competition with international banks. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary to set up “the Law of Bank Holding Company “for the local banks to enriance the competition.
This thesis focuses on the empirical research between financial holding companies, set up by the Fubon and Cathay blocs, which mainly engage in insurance business. The Discounted Cash Flow(DCF) method is used to calculate the value of the subsidiary company through three phases. In addition, Scenario Analysis is used to estimate the interval value. The value of the financial holding company is figured out according to the porportion of the subsidiary company. Different businesses are merged into the financial holding company; therefore, this researcbh tries to find out whether the risk diversification effeccts appears in a insurance company which conglomerates both bank and stock market price.
The findings can be summarized as follows..
1. Under the DCF model through three phases, the financial holding company may refer to the resullt to assess the value of the target company when exchange ratio.
2. The interval value of the financial holding company is almost equal to that of the insurance company, so complementary business should be added to operate.
3. It shows in the analysis of correlation of Return on Equity that the most risk diversification effects appearing in a financial holding company which conglomerates both bank and insurance business.
4. The theoretical interval value, which is calculated by the DCF model through three phases, is closer to market price, so it can be used as a reference for Initial Pubic Offering price.

並列關鍵字

Risk diversification effect ； One-stop-shopping ； Discounted Cash Flow ； Stock abnormal return

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