本文研究分析師預測與高科技公司無形資產的關聯性,希望藉此瞭解無形資產費用化或資本化對分析師預測特性的影響性。由於我國財務會計準則公報第一號「一般公認會計原則彙編」第廿三條第二項謂:「自行發展之無形資產其屬能明確辨認者,如專利權,僅可將申請登記之費用作為專利權成本;研究發展費用,則應作為當期費用」,但高科技無形資產公司的研發費用具有不確定性之未來經濟效益,不確定性因素使得投資者對於分析師預測有更多需求,增加分析預測預測的有用性;再者,資訊不對稱因素影響各個分析師擁有一般和特殊資訊的不同,可能造成分析結果的差異性。本計劃將以Barron et al. [1998]模型,推測分析師的資料特性,主要著重在兩個應變數:(1)一致性ρ:以預測值離散度的觀察值和平均預測平方誤差計算(2)U-SE:衡量聚集個別分析師預測的利益;以及實證模型分析檢驗公司費用化及資本化無形資產的程度和個別的分析師預測程度之間的關聯性。主要實證結果如下: 一、公司包含研發費用的程度愈高,分析師之間預測一致性愈低。 二、高研發費用公司比低研發費用公司,個別的分析師總計預期利益大。 三、高無形資產公司,分析師預測比較樂觀。 四、公司研發費用愈高,相對分析師預測人數愈多;資產負債表上無形資產愈低,公司價值有低估之虞,分析師預測人數愈多。
This research examines the association between firms’ intangibles and analysts’ forecasts. This is for realize the impact of intangible expense and capital on properties of the information in analysts’ earnings forecasts. The statements of financial accounting standards’ the 23 rule: 「The company oneself develop expense can clear identify,patent right,only the book fee can regard as patent rights’ cost,develop and research’s expense regard as expense」. Because the develop and research contain future uncertainty economic benefit, the uncertainty makes investor to need more the information of analysts’ forecasts, and increase the usefulness of analysts’ forecasts. Furthermore, the 「asymmetric information」effect the difference between individual analysts’ own idiosyncratic knowledge and skill. This research will use as Barron et al. [1998] model, to examine the properties of the information contained in analysts’ earnings forecasts, focus on two dependent variables:(1)a consensus(ρ):measure by forecast dispersion and the squared error in the mean forecast, and (2)aggregation forecasts’ benefit(U-SE):measure by the squared error in individual forecasts averaged across analysts and the squared error in the mean forecast. The test result as follows: 1.The lower degree of consensus exists among analysts forecasting earnings for high-intangible firms than low-intangible firms. 2.The benefit of aggregating individual analysts’ forecast is greater for high R&D firm than for low R&D firm. 3.The analysts’ forecast is consistent with the optimism bias for high-intangible firm. 4.The number of analysts’ forecast covering the firm is increasing in high R&D firm. The balance sheet intangibles, most of which are not recognized in firms’ financial statements, influence analysts expend greater effort to cover such firms.