摘要 本文主要在探討新台幣兌美元匯率、美國個人所得、美國就業總人口數、美國消費者物價指數Consumer Price Index(CPI),總體經濟指標對台灣電路板產業出口的影響。匯率變化主要是以應付報價法即一美元兌換若干新台幣之匯率為主。研究期間從2004年1月至2012年12月,共計九年108個月的統計資料,採用單根檢定、簡單迴歸模式分析、複迴歸模式分析與共整合檢定來進行實證研究。 經由實證後歸納其主要的結論有二: (1)美國個人所得、美國消費者物價指數CPI與台灣電路板產業出口數量之間呈現正向的關係,亦即當美國總體經濟指標上漲時則台灣電路板產業出口數量也會同步增加。 (2)本研究結果顯示於2011/03至2012/12月期間新台幣兌換美元匯率下降,即新台幣升值,台灣電路板產業出口量反而大增,主要的原因為2011年由於受到日本311東北大地震和泰國水災事件的影響,國外之進口商發生轉單效應,促使台灣區域的電路板出口產值大增。
Abstract This paper mainly discusses the impacts of the U.S. personal income, the total population of U.S. employment, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) & the overall economic indicators on Taiwan’s Printed Circuit Board (PCB) industry exports. Exchange rate fluctuation is based on the NTD/USD exchange rate. During the study period from January 2004 to December 2012, a total of 108 monthly data are examined & the research is carried out by using the unit root test, a simple regression model analysis, multiple regression analysis & co-integration test. The main conclusions obtained are as follows: (a) There are positive relationships between the U.S. personal income, the U.S. CPI & the Taiwan PCB industry exports. That is, when the overall U.S. economic indicators rose, the Taiwan PCB industry export volume also increased simultaneously. (b) Empirical results obtained from monthly data covering time period from March 2011 to December 2012, showed that despite the appreciation of NT dollars, Taiwan PCB industry exports soared. The main reason is because of the earthquake in northeastern Japan in 2011and the Thailand floods which shipped the order from Japan & Thailand to Taiwan, prompting the output value of Taiwan region greatly increased.