摘要 本文主要在探討匯率、總體經濟指標對台灣電子業出口的影響。我們同時探討台灣對中國貿易的出口值及全球總出口值兩部份,並以新台幣兌美元和人民幣兌美元等兩種匯率為主。研究期間從2000年元月份到2011年第元月份為止,共計有133個月的統計資料,採用用多元迴歸分析來進行實證。 最後經由實證後歸納其主要的結論為:(一) 發現台灣工業用電量、CPI及電子業就業人口數等因素與電子業總出口值是呈正向相關;而NT/USD的匯率水準與電子業總出口值是呈反向關係,且這些因素對台灣電子業的總出口值是具有良好的解釋能力。(二) 發現 CNY/USD的匯率水準和台灣工業用電量與台灣電子業對中國出口值呈正相關,同時也發現以人民幣兌美元的匯率水準及台灣工業用電量兩項變數對於台灣電子業的總出口值是具有良好的解釋能力。
Abstract This article mainly in discussion exchange rate, the economic indicators to Taiwan electronics industry exportation influence. We simultaneously discuss Taiwan to the Chinese trade value of exports and the global total value of exports two parts, and exchanges US dollar and the RMB by the new Taiwan dollar exchanges US dollar and so on two kind of exchange rates primarily. Research period from January 2000 to January 2011 to date, total some 133 month-long statistical data, used with the multiple regression analysis carries on the real diagnosis. Finally induced its main conclusion after the real diagnosis are: (1) discovered the Taiwan industry electricity consumption, CPI and factors and the electronics industry total value of exports and so on electronics industry employment population are the present to the correlation; but the NT/USD exchange rate standard and the electronics industry total value of exports assume the reverse relations, also these factors have the good explanation ability to the Taiwan electronics industry total value of exports.(2) discovered CNY/USD the exchange rate standard and the Taiwan industry electricity consumption and Taiwan electronics industry to the Chinese value of exports present correlation, simultaneously also discovered exchanges US dollar exchange rate standard and the Taiwan industry electricity consumption two variables by the RMB has the good explanation ability regarding the Taiwan electronics industry total value of exports.