- 學位論文
匯率變化對台灣三大出口產業之影響
Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Taiwan’s Three Major Exporting Industries
摘要
台灣係屬於一個海島型的國家，因此在經濟發展過程中，國際間的出口及勞務之貿易往來對經濟發展有重大的影響，尤其對於以出口為導向的台灣，匯率變化的效果常是最深刻的。依照一般傳統理論的看法，認為本國貨幣相對其他國家若是貶值，將使該國出口廠商的價格競爭力提升，進而改善貿易餘額。而浮動匯率制度下，匯率即呈現不確定的形態，廠商的收支與利潤變得非常的不確定，也就影響到了貿易數量。本文以H-O理論為依據，以主要的生產因素「資本」和「勞動」來建立基本模型，再加入匯率、國外所得水準和產業平均薪資，一起探討其對於台灣三大出口產業和台灣出口總額的影響。探討的期間為1988年1月到2008年12月，研究過程也將1997年的亞洲金融風暴事件納入考慮，並分割成兩個不重疊的子樣本區間，觀察不同期間之下出口函數的差異。結果顯示匯率波動和產業出口值間，長期之下是有共整合關係的，而其中以勞動投入對於各產業出口值的影響最大，且為顯著的正向影響，而影響產業出口值的次要因素則為匯率波動，說明了產業本身在勞動的投入和人力資源的培養上相對於匯率因素更為重要，而國外所得水準和薪資水準對於產業出口分別為正向和負向的影響。而短期內，當紡織業、塑化業、電子電機產業和總出口值偏離均衡值時，將以32%、10.3%、1.6%和4.8%的調整速度回到均衡值，其中又以紡織業出口值調整速度最快。最後研究也發現亞洲金融風暴事件的發生，對於高科技產業電子電機業的傷害較小，傳統的紡織產業受到的影響則較大。也說明了人力資本、知識教育的重要性。
並列摘要
Taiwan is an island country of which international trade and labor force participation have great effects on its economic growth. Theoretically, the exchange rate volatility has significant impact on trade for export-oriented Taiwan. According to the theory, the devaluation of the domestic currency would help price competitiveness of exports and improve the country’s trade balance. Under the floating exchange rate system, the exchange rate fluctuates according to market situation. The business profits thus become indefinite, and it also affects foreign trade. This study establishes its research based on H-O theory, and constructs the basic modeling with two main productive factors-“capitals” and “labors”. However, this basic modeling was augmented by adding the exchange rate, foreign income and salary level as explanatory variables to examine exports of Taiwan’s three major exporting industries, data used covering time period from January 1988 to December 2008. The time period includes Asian financial crisis by which on may divide the data into two nonoverlapping sub-periods, so that different export functions would be presented and contrasted. The empirical results based on cointegration analysis show that export amount are cointegrationed with capitals, labors, exchange rate volatility, foreign income and salary level. The quality and quantity of has a strong and significant positive relationship with three industries’ exports. However, exchange rate volatility plays an important role. It interprets that the labor input as human resources is more important than exchange rate volatility. The foreign income and the salary level have positive and negative impact for exports, respectively. If the value of textile, plastic, electrical and electronics industry, and total output diverge from the equilibrium, it will converge to the equilibrium pen year by the adjusting speed of 32%, 10.3%, 1.6%, and 4.8% in short-term, especially the adjustment speed of textile output adjusts fast. Finally, the study also found that the textile industry was injured more than that of the electrical and electronics industry by Asian financial crisis. It also explains the importance of the human resource and expertise, become textile is a labor-intensive industry with less profit and can hardly stand the financial crisis.