臺灣製造業薪資所得與勞動力對台幣匯率之影響

The Impact of Taiwan's Manufacturing Salary Income and Labor Force on the Exchange Rate of New Taiwan Dollar

廖子瑩(Tzu-Ying Liao)

指導教授 ： 林烱垚

淡江大學/商管學院/國際企業學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2017.00937

摘要

台灣是海島型的國家，係屬於小型的開放經濟體系，經濟發展過程中相當依賴進出口貿易，國內經濟活動與國際經濟情勢有密切的關連性，因此，台幣兌換美元匯率的升值或貶值，對於台灣進出口貿易及國際收支平衡等經濟活動有相當程度的影響。
研究方向架構在浮動匯率制度下，匯率呈現不確定的狀態，本研究蒐集2008年12月至2015年12月之月資料，以新台幣兌換美元匯率為依變數，製造業薪資所得、製造業勞動力、進口物價指數及出口物價指數為解釋變數，研究結果顯示，製造業薪資所得與進口物價指數對於台幣兌換美元匯率之變動具有顯著影響關係，而製造業勞動力與出口物價指數對於台幣兌換美元匯率之變動不具顯著影響關係。
經濟理由是因為薪資所得與勞動力代表企業及國家經濟成長的生產力，一國的生產力與匯率是具有顯著連動關係。

關鍵字

台幣兌換美元匯率 ； 薪資所得 ； 勞動力

並列摘要

The determinants of a country foreign exchange have been noticed by this country government bureaus, private corporations and householders. A country's foreign exchange rate not only influence this country import and export, but also influence the economic development conditions such as government spending, business investment and householders consumption.
The purpose of this paper is examining the impacts of a country's physical policy variables in terms of manufacturing industrial wages and labor force productivities on the movements of this country's foreign exchange rate. We are taking the financial markets of Taiwan as the study subject.
The research study time length is taking the time period from year 2008 December to year 2015 December, and the physical policy variables are including manufacturing wage incomes, import goods price indexes, export goods price indexes, labor force productivities, and consumer price index.
We applied the multiple regression models, and provided the basic statistical properties analysis, ADF unit root analysis, and correlation analysis. For receiving the reasonable experimental results, we examines the t value for regression coefficients, and investigated the R2, Adjusted R2, F value, DW, AIC, Schwarz, HQ, Log likelihood, for the regressions.
The output is not to dedicate the predictions of the foreign exchange policy variables in Taiwan, but it is for examining the relationship between the Physical policy of business employment variables and foreign exchange rate in Taiwan's financial markets.
The finding result has concluded the manufacturing wage incomes and labor force productivities do show significant evidences in supporting the testing hypothesis. The ending conclusive remarks is indicating that manufacturing wage incomes and labor force productivities should be considered as the critical elements in adjusting the foreign exchange policy in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

exchange rate of New Taiwan Dollar ； salary income ； labor force

參考文獻

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