人口因素對於泰國金融市場之影響

Demographic Effect on the Thailand Financial Markets

蕭麗雪(Karnnikar Sirisangsawang)

指導教授 ： 高一誠

中原大學/商學院/國際商學碩士學位學程/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/CYCU.2015.00173

摘要

人口因素在各國經濟成長中扮演十分重要的角色，根據疊代模型的預測，金融資產與經濟成長以及人口成長關係密切。因此，本文即由人口因素出發，探討泰國金融市場中，利率、匯率、以及股票市場與人口結構的關係。我們採用的解釋變數包含平均每人GDP成長率、老年人口依賴度、通貨膨脹率、存活率、以及1997亞洲金融風暴的虛擬變數。實證結果顯示出，平均每人GDP成長率、通貨膨脹率、存活率對於匯率報酬率有顯著影響；在股票市場方面，只有存活率對於股票報酬率有顯著影響。在短期利率變化上，存活率與1997亞洲金融風暴有顯著影響；另一方面，在長期利率變化上，存活率與老年人口依賴度有顯著影響。整體而言，存活率在各個市場均有顯著影響力，特別是在長期利率變化上，此人口因素更是最重要的決定因素。

關鍵字

人口因素 ； 泰國 ； 金融市場

並列摘要

Demographic plays an important role of country’s economic structure. According to overlapping generation model, it shows that the return on financial assets is related to economic and demographic factors. Therefore, this study researched on the effects of demographic change on Thailand’s financial market such as foreign exchange rate, stock price and interest rates (i.e. short and long term). Different variables which includes growth rate of GDP per capita and old dependency rate; inflation rate, survival rate and dummy variable (effects of Asian financial crisis, 1997) were utilized to examine the effects on Thailand financial markets. The regression results showed that the GDP growth rate, survival rate and inflation rate have significant effects on foreign exchange rate. Meanwhile, only survival rate had significant effect on the stock price. For short term interest rate, the survival rate and dummy variable showed significant effects. In contrast, long term interest rate was affected by the survival and growth rate of old dependency rate. Therefore, based on the above results, it showed that survival rate played a significant role in every regression, which is an important factor for financial markets especially for long term interest rate relative to two demographic factors.

並列關鍵字

Financial Markets ； Thailand ； Demographic Effect

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