政府政策與總體經濟因素對國際旅遊需求之影響

The Effects of Governmental Policy and Macroeconomic Determinants on International Tourism Demand

周錦梅(Chin-Mei Chou)

指導教授 ： 李正文

中原大學/商學院/商學博士學位學程/博士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201500205

摘要

近年來，全球受金融海嘯與歐債危機的影響，世界經濟發展面臨嚴峻的挑戰。然而，根據世界觀光旅遊委員會(WTTC)所發佈的資料指出，觀光產業仍然呈現持續成長的趨勢，隱含觀光產業對於目前與未來的全球經濟發展，將扮演十分重要的角色。文獻上亦有許多學者提出，觀光產業對於國家經濟發展具有正向助益，特別是國家外匯收入、就業率及稅收等方面(Gunduz and Hatemi-J, 2005; Kim, Chen and Jang, 2006; Lee and Hung, 2010)。因此，目前世界經濟面臨停滯不前，甚或衰退之際，藉由發展旅遊相關產業進而提升國家經濟成長，是世界各國政府當局重要的課題之一。
本論文分別採用動態縱橫資料、平滑轉換自我迴歸與蒙地卡羅模擬法等研究方法，建構三個不同的研究主題與實證模型，分別探討政府政策與總體經濟因素對國際旅遊需求影響。第一個主題主要探討台灣在地文化的國際行銷與總體經濟因素，對台灣入境旅遊之影響。為了避免實證結果可能因外生性問題，產生偏誤與不一致的情形，我們採用動態縱橫資料修正傳統的引力旅遊需求模型進行估計。實證結果顯示，前期與當期的旅遊流量之間，存在有顯著正向關係，此現象隱含旅遊流量存在持續性效果。另外，雙邊的GDP、CPI、貿易量與距離，對台灣旅遊需求具有顯著的影響。最後，提升在地文化的國際行銷，確實能有效的吸引國際觀光客來台旅遊。
第二個主題主要檢驗入境旅遊流量是否存在非線性架構，採用平滑轉換自我迴歸方法建構一個的旅遊需求模型，並對四個主要國家，估計貨幣政策在入境旅遊流量與總體經濟因素間的非線性關係。實證估計結果顯示，除了英國不具有非線性架構外，日本、美國與澳大利亞等國家的入境台灣旅遊流量是存在非線性架構。此外，這三個國家的實質有效匯率落後期，能夠非線性的改變該國家旅客入境台灣流量，隱含不同型態的貨幣政策對未來入境旅遊趨勢是具有差異影響力。
第三個主題主要驗證開放大陸人士來台，是否負向影響其他國籍的觀光客到台灣旅遊，且評估此開放政策是否對台灣旅遊需求具有排擠效果。本文採用實證方法，首先援用平滑轉換自我迴歸方法，依個別國家，建構一個旅遊需求預測模型，並使用蒙地卡羅方法模擬來台旅遊人數。實證結果顯示，依個別國家而言，開放政策對日本、美國與澳大利亞等國家的來台觀光客存在排擠效果，且對日本的影響效果最為顯著，其次是美國與澳大利亞;而對英國的來台觀光客，則不存在排擠效果。就整體而言，來台觀光總人數不但未因開放大陸觀光客來台旅遊而減少，反而呈現增長的現象。
最後，總體經濟變數與旅遊需求間是存在非線性關係，且隨著時間、國家與匯率等因素而改變，隱含貨幣政策對旅遊需求，可能因不同時間與地區，具有不同程度的影響效果。再者，國家旅遊政策實施，確實能有效的吸引更多的國際觀光客。因此，面對全球經濟成長趨緩，甚至衰退的情況，政府相關當局可嘗試透過創新的方法與國家政策，發展旅遊相關產業解決經濟停滯的現象。

關鍵字

蒙地卡羅模型 ； 平滑轉換自我迴歸模型 ； 動態縱橫資料模型 ； 旅遊需求模型 ； 排擠效果

並列摘要

While the global economy has been hampered by the global financial crisis and the Euro sovereign debt crisis, the tourism industry has continued to grow in recent years. According to The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), the important role of that tourism will play in the development of the global economy. There is extensive literature indicating the positive contributions of tourism to economic development, particularly in foreign reserves, employee rates and tax revenues (Gunduz and Hatemi-J, 2005; Kim et al., 2006; Lee and Hung, 2010). Consequently, in the global economic slowdown, even recession environment, considering a variety of possible ways to develop tourism-related industries through innovation patterns has become one of the most important topics in the world.
This dissertation consists of three essays on government policy and macroeconomic determinants on international tourism demand. Chapter 2 is to test the impact of cultural creative international marketing on inbound tourism in Taiwan. To avoid the possibility of bias and inconsistency in the results due to endogeneity, we adopt a dynamic panel data framework to modify the gravity model for the estimation. The results suggest that a significant positive relationship exists between previous period tourist flow and current period tourist flow, implying the presence of a persistent effect. In addition, the bilateral GDP, bilateral CPI, bilateral trade volume, and distance have a significant impact on tourism demand. Finally, enhancing cultural creative international marketing has effectively increased the number of tourists from these countries to visit Taiwan.
Chapter 3 examines whether inbound tourism flows follow a nonlinear path and constructs a tourism demand model for the specification of a smooth transition autoregressive model that measures nonlinear monetary policy proxy effects (i.e., exchange rate) on the relationship between inbound tourism flows and their economic determinants in four major countries. The estimation results show that inbound tourism follows a smoothly dynamic regime-switching process in Japan (JP), the US (US), and Australia (AU). In addition, lagged REER nonlinearly causes changes in inbound tourism to Taiwan (TW) in all three cases, implying that monetary policies can differentially influence future inbound tourism trends, as they are found in different regimes. More importantly, we find that a high degree of REER in the TW-JP case increases positive effects of GDP while decreasing the positive effects of oil prices on inbound tourism. The high REER level in the TW-US case increases the positive effects of GDP while decreasing the negative effects of CPI on Taiwanese inbound tourism. The high REER level in the TW-AU case decreases the negative effects of CPI and oil prices on Taiwanese inbound tourism.
Chapter 4 focuses on whether the policy of opening Taiwan to mainland China tourists negatively affected the number of inbound tourists to Taiwan from different countries and to evaluate whether the opening-up to Chinese tourists has a crowding-out effect on tourism demand. Adopting an empirical approach, the study first establishes a forecasting model for the number of inbound tourists to Taiwan from different countries using the smooth transition autoregressive model. Then, the number is estimated using Monte Carlo simulation. The estimation results show that with respect to individual countries, visitors from many countries (except for the U.K.) have been crowded out to various extents because of the opening-up policy. Among those countries, Japan is the most significantly impacted, followed by the U.S. and Australia. Therefore, on the scale of all sample countries, the number of tourists to Taiwan has not declined but instead, has shown an increasing trend following the implementation of the policy of opening Taiwan to tourists from Mainland China.
Finally, the relationship between main macroeconomic variables and inbound tourism is nonlinear, with different changes over time and across countries and depend on lagged REER values. Moreover, the implementation of tourism policies has effectively attracted more international tourists. Thus, facing the global economic slowdown, even recession, the world should be able to develop tourism-related industries through innovation patterns to address the situation of economic stagnation.

並列關鍵字

tourism demand model ； crowding-out effect ； dynamic panel data ； smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model ； Monte Carlo simulation. ； macroeconomic determinants

參考文獻

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