本研究將探討中國家族企業與非家族企業之違約風險是否有所差異,進而將家族企業細分為港澳台、內資、外資家族與非家族企業之違約風險是否存在差異。除了採用市場模型KMV評估風險的評估模型計算違約風險以外,在額外分析也採用了會計基礎模型Z-score方式,同時採用兩種評估違約風險的模型檢測本研究問題。本研究的樣本為中國上市公司,樣本取自台灣經濟新報,研究期間為2004年到2013年,共計十年。 本研究結果發現,家族企業相較於非家族企業所產生的違約風險較高,且將家族企業分成內資家族企業與非家族族企業相比時,內資家族企業所產生的違約風險也較高,但港澳台家族、外資家族企業與非家族企業兩者的違約風險沒有存在顯著差異。本文推測中國家族企業距今向外改革開放的時間較短,港澳台與外資的家族企業文化、公司治理模式相較於中國家族企業模式可能有所不同,才導致預期結果有所不同。因此,中國家族企業若要達到永續發展的經營,必須借鏡於其他國家的家族治理模式,調整造成家族企業發生違約風險的因素,才有利於企業持續發展。
This paper investigates whether the difference of default risk between family firms and nonfamily firms, and furthermore whether the difference of the family firms is subdivided into Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan family firms, domestic family firms, and foreign investment family and non-family firms. In addition to using market model KMV to assess default risk, additional analysis is used in basic accounting model Z-score. We use assessment models above to detect the risk of default of the research questions. The sample about publicly traded company in Chinese on this paper is collected from the TEJ. The research period is from 2004 to 2013. Our results show that family firms have higher risk of default than nonfamily firms, and when family firms is divided into Domestic family firms compared with nonfamily firms, the domestic firms risk of default is higher, too. However, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan family firms, foreign family firms of risk of default compared with nonfamily firms do not significant differences. We Surmised that the period of implementation of reform and open policy is not very long , so there have something difference between family firm's business culture, corporate governance in Hong Kong , Macao , Taiwan and traditional family firms. Because of this results, our expectations are diverse Therefore, the Chinese family firms to achieve sustainable development of the business, they must learn from other countries enterprises, corporate governance, and adjustment factors contributing to the risk of default, can help the sustainable development of enterprises.