- 學位論文
台灣各縣市彩券盈餘分配數與景氣之關聯性
The relationship between the distribution of lottery's surplus and business cycle： Evidence from the countries and cities in Taiwan
摘要
本研究探討台灣地區各縣市彩券盈餘分配數，與「景氣指標」中之景氣對策信號及領先指標指數之關聯性。實證上選取2002年第1季至2012年第2季之資料，運用縱橫資料模型、共整合模型，以及向量自我迴歸模型所發展出之三種分析模型--因果關係檢定、衝擊反應函數及變異數分解等分析工具，檢視各縣市彩券盈餘分配受景氣指標之影響。實證結果發現，領先指標對於彩券盈餘分配數呈現顯著負向影響，且其影響對各縣市不存在差異。另景氣對策信號對彩券盈餘分配數，雖亦呈現負向影響，卻是不顯著的。共整合檢定結果，發現台灣地區至少存在2個共整合向量，顯示彩券盈餘分配數、領先指標及景氣對策信號具長期均衡關係﹔因果關係檢定結果，證實三者之間均存在雙向領先落後關係。
並列摘要
This study investigates the relationship between lottery's surplus and monitoring indicator in the cities and counties of Taiwan. In empirical, sample period spans from Q1, 2002 to Q2, 2012. In performing empirical estimation, we use three types of approaches : the panel data estimation model, the cointegration analysis model, and the vector autoregression (VAR) model. The VAR model can be used to conduct Granger causality test, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition analysis. The empirical results show that the leading indicator has a significant and negative impact on the distribution of lottery's surplus, and the impact is indifferent among cities and counties in Taiwan. Although the economic monitoring signal also has a negative impact on the allocation of lottery surplus ; however, the effect is insignificant. The cointegration test finds that there are at least two co-integration relationships among the distribution of loterry's surplus, leading indicator, and the economic monitoring signal, implying that these three variables have a long-run equilibrium relationship. Moreover, the Granger causality test shows that there exists a causality relationship among the three variables.