台灣貧富階層二氧化碳排放之變遷及差異因素分析

Changes and Influential Factors of CO2 Emissions between the Poor and the Rich in Taiwan

李仲賢(JUNG-SHIAN LI)

指導教授 ： 林師模 ； 林晉勗

中原大學/商學院/國際經營與貿易研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201900835

摘要

近幾年，台灣民間消費占GDP比率一直介於50至55%之間，由於最終消費的商品隱含了商品生產階段中因製程及消耗能源而排放的CO2，因此，家計部門也就成為台灣CO2排放的重要來源。惟家計部門中貧富差異明顯，近年台灣貧富差距的拉大與CO2排放量的增加之間是否有何關聯？而造成貧富階層CO2排放量增速及增量有所差異的主要原因又為何？在溫室氣體減量已經成為國家環境政策的重大施政方向之時，這些議題的探討對擬定減量相關之執行策略將有重大之意義。
本研究將台灣家計部門依「可支配所得按戶數五等分位」拆分成五個所得階層，估算2001、2006及2011年各所得階層之二氧化碳隱含排放量，並藉由投入產出結構分解分析，將兩個年度間影響CO2排放量變化的因素分解為六種主要來源，分別為：二氧化碳排放密集度、直接及間接需求係數、家計消費結構、人均消費、家計人口結構、人口數等。研究結果顯示，近年台灣家計消費所隱含的二氧化碳排放量逐年減少，顯示貧富差距的擴大似乎與整體排放量的增加並無明顯關聯。結構分解分析的結果則發現，二氧化碳密集度及人均消費的變動是影響台灣家計消費隱含二氧化碳變動的主要因素。二氧化碳密集度的降低能大幅度的減少二氧化碳的排放，而人均消費的增加則會促成二氧化碳排放量的增加，並抵銷了二氧化碳排放密集度降低所產生的減排效果，且這樣的情況在中高所得階層更為明顯。根據上述研究結果，針對中產階層擬訂誘因措施，以引導其改善消費結構，朝向消費低碳產品，將可更有效降低整體之CO2排放量。

關鍵字

所得階層 ； 投入產出分析 ； 二氧化碳排放 ； 結構分解分析

並列摘要

Household consumption accounts for around 50-55% of GDP in Taiwan. Since the production of goods for final consumption will directly and indirectly emit CO2, household consumption, therefore, has become one of the most important sources of CO2 emissions in Taiwan. While households of an economy are distinguished by distinct income levels, one might ask: (1) is the widening of the income gap between the rich and the poor households in recent years a major cause of the observed increase in CO2 emissions? And (2) what are the key factors leading to differential increase and rate of increase in CO2 emission between the rich and the poor? These issues have important policy implications and deserve in-depth examination.
This study distinguishes Taiwan’s households into five income groups and estimates the embodied CO2 emission associated with these groups’ consumption of goods and services for 2001, 2006, and 2011. The results are then used to analyze the factors causing the change in CO2 emission for household groups between two time periods using structural decomposition analysis. The factors considered are: CO2 intensity, total requirement coefficient, household consumption structure, per capita consumption, household population structure, and population level. Our results indicate that (1) CO2 emissions embodied in household consumption reveal a decreasing trend, suggesting that the widening of the income gap in recent years might not be a main reason of increasing CO2 emissions; and (2) CO2 intensity and per capita consumption are the two major factors causing CO2 emissions embodied in household consumption to change, and the decrease of CO2 emissions resulting from lowering CO2 intensity has been offset by the increase in per capita consumption, especially for high-to-middle-income groups. Based on these, we suggest that incentive policies be designed focusing on middle-income households to lead them to consuming low-carbon products to more effectively reduce the overall CO2 emissions.

並列關鍵字

Income class ； input-output analysis ； CO2 emission ； structural decomposition analysis

參考文獻

參考文獻................................................ 31

一、英文部分.............................................31

1.Alcántara, V., Del Río, P. and Hernández, F.(2010).“Structural Analysis of Electricity Consumption by Productive Sectors-the Spanish Case”. Energy 35, pp.2088–2098.

2.Ang, B.W. and Zhang, F.Q. (2000). “ A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies”, Energy 25, pp.1149–1176.

3.Ang, B.W. and Liu, F.L. (2001). “A new energy decomposition method: perfect in decomposition and consistent in aggregation”, Energy 26, pp.537–548.