住,是人類的基本需求,人人都需要有棲身之所,但房價偏高是目前購屋最重要的問題。本研究利用台北、新北、桃園、台中及高雄自2012年8月至2014年12月的房價指數及實價登錄價格資料,以縱橫資料(panel data)形式,應用González et al. (2005)所提出的縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型(Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model,PSTR),景氣對策信號分數作為轉換變數,探討不同景氣對策信號分數情況下,房價指數及實價登錄價格的互相影響力。 實證結果發現房價指數及實價登錄價格之間存在顯著的非線性關係且隨時間變動影響,決定於不同景氣對策信號分數的區間。前期房價指數顯著影響當期實價登錄價格並呈現正向關係,當景氣對策信號分數位於區間外,其正向影響能力變大;前期實價登錄價格與當期房價指數呈現負向關係,當景氣對策信號分數位於區間外,負向影響能力變大。
Live is a basic human need, and everyone needs to own house, but the most important issue for homebuyers is the high house price. In this paper, we select five municipal city include Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung and Kaohsiung of the actual price registration system price and house index. This sample spans from August 2012 to December 2014.This paper adopts panel data and the Panel smooth Transition regression model, constructed by González et al. (2005). We choose the economic monitoring indicator scores as the transition variable to estimate the relationship between the actual price registration system and house index. Empirical results show that there is a non-linear relationship between the actual price registration system price and house index, depending on the different economic monitoring indicator scores. The pre-house index and the actual price registration system price has a positive relationship. If the economic monitoring indicator scores fall out of the interval, the positive effect becomes larger, The pre-actual price registration system price and current house index has a negative relationship. When the economic monitoring indicator scores fall out of the interval, the negative effect becomes larger.