台灣能源、環境與經濟之回饋與互動 ─FREE模型之應用

The Feedback and Interactions between Energy, Environment, and the Economy in Taiwan - An Application of the FREE Model

曾志雄(Chih-Hsiung Tseng)

指導教授 ： 林師模

中原大學/商學院/商學博士學位學程/博士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201000850

摘要

摘 要
在整個經濟系統的發展過程中，能源投入佔了一個非常重要的地位，若缺乏能源，則經濟體系將欠缺發展的動力。另外，近年來已開發或開發中國家之環境意識興起，環保要求逐漸提高；而溫室氣體 (如二氧化碳) 過度排放所造成之全球暖化效應，也導致國際上對溫室氣體排放減量採行限制逐漸形成風氣。溫室氣體之排放，化石能源使用佔了很大的比例，如果為了減少溫室氣體排放而大幅減少化石能源的使用，勢必將對經濟發展造成很大的衝擊。由此可知，能源、環境與經濟三者之間是一個緊密的互動回饋關係，不同的情境互動會影響到最後解決問題的成本及效果，基於此，探討此問題必須要對能源、環境與經濟三者之間作一個綜合性的考量，並且要有一個完整性的架構，才足以解決此一問題。
由於能源、環境與經濟互動關係本身具備高度的複雜性，政府所研擬之政策、方案及措施對於解決溫室氣體排放問題是否有效？所訂的政策方向是否正確？效果是否良好？這些問題均需有適當的分析架構來加以評估。有鑑於此，本研究參考國外之分析架構，建立適合台灣的能源、環境與經濟互動模型，用以分析我國相關政策、措施的實施對經濟體系所可能產生的影響。
本研究利用建構完成之台灣3E系統動態模型，並經由設計政策情境模擬後所得結果發現，課徵能源稅對於經濟體系總產出將有負面的影響，惟相對於以歐洲國家的稅率水準課徵之碳稅所產生的負面影響來的小，對於福利減少的影響也比較小；不過，課徵能源稅對於碳排放量降低之效果也較課徵碳稅為小。此外，模擬結果也發現，逐年漸增課稅方式對於經濟總產出降低之影響，比一次到位課稅方式之影響來的小，對於福利減少的影響也比較小，因此，就經濟發展的觀點而言，建議應採取逐年漸增課稅方式課徵能源稅或碳稅。不過，值得注意的是，逐年漸增課稅方式課徵能源稅或碳稅對於總碳排放量降低之效益也較一次到位課稅方式來的小。

關鍵字

經濟影響 ； 再生能源 ； 回饋循環 ； 系統動態模型

並列摘要

Energy input plays a very important role in the development of the entire economic system. If lacking resources, the economic system will not have the driving force for development. In recent years, owing to the gradual increase in environmental awareness in developed or developing countries and the global warming effect caused by excessive emission of carbon dioxide, it has become an international trend to restrict the emission of the amount of greenhouse gases. The use of fossil energy is the leading cause for the emission of greenhouse gases. However, if the use of fossil energy is reduced in order to lower the emission of greenhouse gases, there will certainly be a serious impact on economic development. There is a close interactive feedback relationship among resources, environment, and economy. The interaction of different contexts will affect the final costs and effects. As a result, it is important to establish a comprehensive framework to include resources, environment, and economy when investigating such issues.
As the interaction among resources, environment, and economy is complicated, there is a need to establish an appropriate analysis framework to evaluate whether the policies, schemes, and measures developed by the government for solving the issue concerning emission of greenhouse gases are effective, whether the policy direction in correct, and whether the effects are beneficial. Therefore, this study referred to the analysis framework in foreign studies to establish the interactive model for the resources, environment, and economy in Taiwan to analyze the possible influence of the implementation of relevant policies and measures on the economic system.
This study used the established 3E system dynamics model for Taiwan to simulate the policy contexts. It was found that the levy on energy consumption has a negative influence on the total output of the economic system. However, such influence is relatively smaller than the carbon tax imposed based on the tax rates in European countries. In addition, as opposed to the carbon tax, the influence of levy on energy consumption on the reduction in the emission of carbon is smaller. Moreover, according to the simulation results, the influence of the annually increasing tax rates on the total output of economy is smaller than the fixed rate, and its influence on the reduction in welfare is smaller as well. Therefore, in terms of economic development, it is suggested to adopt the annually increasing tax rate to impose energy tax or carbon tax. However, it is noteworthy that, the effect of the adoption of the annually increasing tax rate for imposing energy tax and carbon tax is smaller than that of the adoption of fixed tax rate.

並列關鍵字

Renewable energy resources ； Feedback loop ； economic impact ； System dynamics model

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