建立知識化評估模型於專案管理之風險監控

Building a knowledge-based model for project risk evaluation

許宜芳(Yi-Fang Hsu)

指導教授 ： 戚玉樑

中原大學/商學院/資訊管理研究所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201000937

摘要

本研究是以專案管理的角度評估說明專案風險的重要性。由於過去都是依賴經理人的經驗主觀判斷，因此可能導致專案的成本比預估過高、資源未適當安排等，進而影響專案品質與成敗。所以若能在專案初期，就能預先推估出專案可能在初期的風險，並能即時的做好處理與應變計劃，與執行中及早知道可能發生的潛在風險，並能即時反應與採取措施，都可使專案在進度及品質都能大大的提昇，有利於專案的成功率。本研究採用知識本體(Ontology) 推論以專家領域的方式，針對不同的專案類型需求，並以生命週期做為子任務，找出該需求子任務所合適的風險分析技術解決方案，以協助專案管理者在風險控管上，獲得更多的解決方案及提升專案品質。在專案執行萃取其中有用的信息知識，並以專家學者所提的風險因子作為評估，藉由歷史資訊既專案記憶來識別與分析風險的可能性，以知識系統的概念，創造、整合、儲存和移轉等過程，發展出一套知識模型，用以推理邏輯找到風險因子與風險處理，使知識能達到分享與再運用。本研究是以軟體專案為例，整合專家知識、專案特徵與風險因子等，以知識本體與語意規則結合，做為知識建模，將歷史專案資訊做為基礎，推論出目前專案的潛在風險及過去風險事件回應與風險等級，以提供專案管理者在專案執行時持續監控風險之參考。

關鍵字

知識本體 ； 生命週期 ； 專案管理 ； CMMI（能力成熟度整合模式） ； 風險管理 ； 知識管理

並列摘要

This study evaluated and illustrated the importance of project risk from the angle of project management. Because, in the past, managers’ experiences and subjective judgments were highly relied on, project costs were possibly over-estimated, and resources were not properly arranged. Quality and success of projects were therefore influenced. If in the initial stage of a project, possible risks which may arise in this stage can be predicted, plans to respond to and handle these risks can be made in time. And if potential risks which may arise during project implementation can be known in advance, immediate responses can be made and related measures can be taken. This way, quality and progress control of a project can be improved, helping to increase the successful rate of that project. This study aimed to use ontology with expert domains, according to different requirements of different project types, to find proper risk analysis techniques and solutions for subtasks of the requirements while considering life cycles as subtasks, in order to offer project managers more choices of solutions and help them to improve project quality. During implementation of a project, useful information and knowledge were retrieved. Evaluations were made with risk factors proposed by experts and scholars. Through historical information and project records, possibilities of risks were identified and analyzed. A knowledge model was developed through the processes of creation, integration, storage, and transferring, with the concepts of knowledge systems. The model was used to explore risk factors and corresponding solutions, so that knowledge could be shared and re-used. The example used in this study was a software project. By integrating the experts’ knowledge, the features of the project, and the risk factors, combining ontology with semantic rules, a knowledge model was built. Based on the historical project information, the inferences of potential risks of the current project, responses to the previous projects, and the levels of the risks were made, offering project managers a reference when supervising risks arising during implementation of a project.

並列關鍵字

risk management ； Project management ； knowledge management ； ontology ； life cycle ； CMMI（Capability Maturity Model Integration）

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