大型活動疏散問題模擬分析之研究－ 以台北2010國際花卉博覽會為例

A Simulation Analysis for Mass-Event Evacuation Problems: A Case Study of 2010 Taipei International Flower Exhibition

蔡淳修(Cai-Chun Siou)

指導教授 ： 陳平舜

中原大學/工學院/工業工程研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201100881

摘要

就現代的都市活動狀況而言，大型活動的舉辦已經是相當頻繁。國際上的知名都市因為
國家的文化、運動、政治、宗教或娛樂性等大型活動，形成高密度的人潮聚集。在民眾高密
度聚集的狀況下，當大型活動結束後的人潮解散時，如果沒一套交通管制機制或民眾疏散對
策，在民眾離開的過程中，容易造成該地區附近的交通阻塞。若嚴重的狀況下，更可能因為
民眾疏散時的推擠造成意外，而導致民眾傷亡的狀況。故在大型活動疏散問題中，該有一套
合適的民眾疏散策略來解決大型活動疏散問題。故本研究對大型活動的各種交通管制機制，
進行大型活動績效之探討。
本研究將大型活動疏散網路分為兩種模式來探討，分別為自行開車模式與搭乘大眾交通
運輸模式，而大眾交通運輸模式又分為公車與捷運兩種交通工具。並將大型活動疏散網路結
合單一來源多目的地之疏散交通運輸模式形成本研究的大型活動疏散模式。本研究以2010 花
博大型活動疏散模式為例探討以下交通管制機制：加派公車與捷運、實施調撥車道、交通燈
號紅燈時間的調設和規劃徒步區至鄰近之捷運站，並進行5 種交通管制方案之比較，以Arena
軟體模擬分析各種交通管制方案的實行績效與成本效益，以提供大型活動疏散民眾在疏散時
的交通運具選擇與政府在進行交通管制方案選擇之參考。
本研究結果顯示花博大型活動疏散模式中，發現交通燈號紅燈的縮短能有效減少民眾開
車的疏散延遲比例與疏散時間，而公車因等候班車的時間不固定，所以總會有些民眾延遲疏
散。但加派公車還是能有效減低民眾疏散延遲且加派公車成本較高。捷運所擁有的民眾疏散
空間相當大，且越多民眾搭乘捷運，其民眾的疏散時間越快。本研究提供一個大型活動疏散
模擬的平台，可做為實務上疏散民眾之交通管制機制實行的衡量模型。

關鍵字

系統模擬 ； 大型活動疏散 ； 疏散網路 ； 交通管制機制

並列摘要

For modern cities, there are many mass-event activities, such as activities of culture, sports,
politics, religion, or entertainment. During these activities of international cities, high-density
crowds will gather in specific places. After the mass-event is dismissed, and if there is no traffic
control or evacuation mechanism, it will be likely to cause the traffic congestion in the vicinity of
the mass-event activity. Further, an accident may occur due to the push of crowds. Sometimes, it
will result in the death of people. An appropriate mass-event evacuation mechanism is need to deal
with this situation. Therefore, the objective of this research is to explore various traffic control
mechanisms in order to improve the performance of the mass-event evacuation.
This study divides the evacuation network of the mass-event activity into two modes:
self-drive and public transportation modes. The public transportation modes also divides into two
classes: bus and mass rapid transit (MRT). The evacuation network of the mass-event activity
consists of a single-source multi-destination network of evacuation transportation modes. This
research considers 2010 Taipei international flower exhibition as a case study of the mass-event
activity. The proposed traffic control mechanisms of the mass-event activity are in the following:
deploying more buses and MRTs, implementing allocations of lanes, resetting time of traffic signal,
and adding a pedestrian lane to a close MRT station. The five traffic control mechanisms are
formed and compared their performance of the mass-event evacuation through Arena simulation
software, to provide crowds a choice of transportation modes after the mass-event is dismissed,or
provide government a suggestion of traffic control.
The results of this study indicate that for the mass-event evacuation, shortening the time of the
red traffic signal has a positive effect on reducing the proportion of the delayed evacuation people
and the delayed evacuation time. Since the waiting time of a bus is various, it causes some people to
delay by bus. However, deploying more buses has a positive impact on reducing the number of
delayed evacuation people with higher cost. Although the MRT has larger space for passengers than the bus, people arrive to their destinations quickly by MRT. Overall, this research proposes a
framework to study the influences of evacuation mechanisms of the mass-event activity in order to
improve the performance of evacuation mechanisms of the mass-event activity.

並列關鍵字

system simulation ； traffic control mechanism ； evacuation network ； mass-event evacuation

參考文獻

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