探討盤元鋼種訂單趨勢與原料需求之關聯研究—以W公司為例

由於不銹鋼產品用途越來越廣泛，不銹鋼產品在全球各產業需求中扮演著不可或缺的角色。然而近期的新冠肺炎影響嚴重打亂各國供應鏈、再加上環保議題及俄烏戰爭衍生各項原物料產生猛爆性的上漲；而在不銹鋼產品生產上其煉鋼原料成本佔據其成本六成，因此本研究將透過鎳價與產業鋼種族群之分析，提供原料採購部門對於原料價格趨勢有效增加採購低價原料及減少採購高價原料，有效調配原料庫存。此次分析將透過 Python 作為開發工具，並使用統計學中的皮爾森相關係數來衡量變項間之線性相關程度並利用迴歸分析中的最小平方法，來分析各項因素自變數對原料需求效果依變數彼此之關係，來了解當各項自變數共同作用時，是否會對依變項產生獨立影響以及與其影響的程度；並利用假設檢定來針對上述模型是否具有參考性檢定這些迴歸係數去掉單位的問題。來探討鎳月均價與 W 公司產業別及鋼種族群的訂單量關聯性。採用的數據期間係來自 2011 年 1 月至 2021 年 12 月鎳月均價及 W 公司產業別及鋼種族群訂單量。本研究發現產業別與鋼種族群確實與訂單量有關連性，其中焊條 308 鋼種族群等八個組合是具有顯著相關性，受到鎳均價和時間效應所影響，但在此八個組合中冷打線 304HCU 及冷打線 S 316Mo 之訂單量是不受鎳均價效應影響。因此，本研究建議Ｗ公司為維持低成本競爭優勢，可建置一套訂單預估平台提供營業部門針對訂單評估各產業別銷售趨勢，可減少因鎳價波動導致接單時相關成本之損失增加效益；原料採購部門可透過訂單預估平台反推原料需求，針對廠內後續採購原料需求進行風險評估做最適化採購來減少追料及減產衍生相關成本之損失。

關鍵字

鎳均價；訂單趨勢；鋼種；原料採購

並列摘要

As stainless-steel products are used widely in different kind of scope, stainless-steel products become a necessary role in many industries worldwide. However, supply chain is hit seriously due to the outbreak of Covid-19, environmental issue and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Cost of steelmaking accounts 60% for the cost of producing stainless-steel products. This research will analyze through nickel price and different stainless-steel products to suggest an efficient procurement plan for a more effective material stock allocation. This analysis will apply Python as a development tool and Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the degree of linear correlation between variables. Moreover, this analysis will use the least square method on regression analysis to analyze the relationship between each factor (independent variable) on the effect of raw material demand (dependent variable) in order to understand whether the working of independent variables will affect dependent variables and to which degree it will be affected. The hypothesis test will be used to test whether the above model is workable on testing the problem of removing the units of these regression coefficients to discover the relationship between the average of monthly nickel price and the sales on different stainless steel product in W company. This research explains that by building a sales forecast platform is useful to evaluate various sales situation in different industries and bring competitive strength by maintaining low cost and eliminating the risk causing by the nickel price fluctuation for W company. Material procurement division can access material demand by the forecast platform and manage risk by a more efficient procurement plan to reduce the possibility for additional cost by insufficient inventory and production decreasing.