氣候因子及社會經濟條件對索羅門群島類登革熱病例傳播的影響

The effects of weather conditions and socio-economic status on the transmissions of Dengue-like Illness (DLI) cases in Solomon Islands

蘇安諾(Anna Nurachmawati Sugiarto)

指導教授 ： 江謝令涵

中原大學/工學院/環境工程學系/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu202000484

摘要

類登革熱(Dengue like-Illness, DLI)是遍佈熱帶地區由登革熱病毒所引起的蚊媒病毒性疾病。目前公認蚊子的生命週期會受到溫度、相對溼度及降雨等氣候變量的影響。本研究旨在找到索羅門群島類登革熱與氣候變量之間的相關性，並蒐集了2017至2018年間索羅門群島衛生暨醫療服務部(Ministry of Health and Medical Services, MHMS)的每周DLI病例以及8個人工氣象站的每日天氣資料。研究中將DLI病例作為因變量，氣候變量作為自變量。
本研究在DLI病例最高的三個省份中進行，分別為Malaita、Honiara以及Western省。本研究使用迴歸分析以進行分析及確定氣候變量與DLI病例之間的相關性，並且加入了交互作用來加強迴歸分析之結果。在迴歸分析的結果中表明了氣候變量對DLI病例有顯著影響，且在三個省份中會因地區的不同而有所不同，但是各省份氣候變量的大小及重要性均不相同。此結果表明諸如社會經濟條件的地方性決定因素也可能影響氣候因子對DLI病例傳播的影響。
社會經濟條件也是影響DLI病例的因素之一，舉例來說，較高的平均家庭成員、快速的城市化、良好的醫療設備、教育水平以及環境衛生可能會成為索羅門群島政府需要注意的其他因素。本研究發現，在2017至2018年中氣候變量對DLI病例有影響，但是索羅門群島三個省份時間延遲的長短和影響程度有所不同，這說明了氣候因子對DLI有著高度空間敏感性。

關鍵字

類登革熱 ； 索羅門群島 ； 迴歸分

並列摘要

Dengue like-Illness (DLI) is a mosquito-borne viral disease caused by dengue virus that widespread throughout the tropics. The mosquito lifecycle is acknowledged to be affected by weather variables, such as temperature, relative humidity (RH) and precipitation. The objective of this study is to find the association between Dengue-like Illness (DLI) with weather variables in Solomon Islands at provincial level. This study collected weekly DLI cases during 2017 to 2018 from Ministry of Health and Medical Services (MHMS) and daily weather data from 8 manned weather stations in Solomon Islands. DLI cases are used as the dependent variable, while weather variables are utilized as independent variables.
The study was conducted in three provinces with highest DLI cases: Malaita, Honiara and Western Province. To analyze and identify the association between weather variables towards DLI, this study used regression analysis. This study also adds interaction variables to enhance the results of the regression analysis. The regression analysis showed that the weather variables were essentially found to be influential towards DLI cases and varied by locality in three Provinces in Solomon Islands. However, the magnitude and significance of weather variables differs by Province. This result implies that local determinants, such as socio-economic conditions, might also affect the effect of weather conditions on the spread of DLI cases.
Socio-economic condition also become factors that affected DLI cases. For instance, high average households number, rapid urbanization, good health facilities, level of education and environmental hygiene may become additional factors that need to be paid attention to the Solomon Island’s Government. This study found that weather variables were influential on DLI cases in Solomon Islands in 2017 to 2018. But the length of time lag, and the magnitude of impact varied by three Provinces in Solomon Islands, showing that the impact of weather condition on DLI cases is highly spatial sensitive.

並列關鍵字

Dengue-like Illness ； Solomon Islands ； Regression Analysis

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