- 學位論文
企業銷售預測對庫存管理政策影響之研究 -以台灣汽車產業為例
A Research of the Influence of Sales Forecasting on Business Inventory Policy - Taiwanese Automotive Industry as an Example
摘要
汽車業由於生產限制，需完全依賴銷售預測，而由於汽車業之銷售預測大多經由主觀的專家意見法，由銷售部門根據前期結果，配合未來政經變數假設、新產品上市計劃及公司政策做定性預測，使得預測多有誤差，造成生產管理人員之生產庫存管理作業困擾。 為提供一有效庫存管理模式，本研究針對庫存管理重要變數-銷售預測，經過迴歸分析，由11個產經變數中（日幣匯率、失業率、經濟成長率、股市大盤指數、油價、美元匯率、實質薪資、國民儲蓄率、消費者物價指數、我國工業生產指數及銀行放款利率），最後挑選其中3個與汽車銷售相關性高的變數，再經由多變數迴歸統計分析，最後只留下「大盤指數」、「油價」及「實質薪資」三個自變數建立個案公司庫存迴歸管理模型。而從此三個變數可發現： 1.我國大盤指數與個案公司的銷售量呈現高度負相關之關係，而此與其他關於我國汽車銷售量影響變數之研究結果不同。 2.我國汽油價格與個案公司的銷售量呈現高度負相關之關係。 3.我國國人實質薪資與個案公司的銷售量呈現高度正相關之關係。
並列摘要
Due to production constraints, the automobile industry relies entirely on sales forecasts. However, these forecasts are mostly subjective, based upon expert opinions carried out and given by various sales departments. It adopts prior period results as a basis, tied in with assumed factors such as future political and economic variables. These, combined with new product launch plans and company policy qualitative forecasts result in forecast discrepancy. These forecast errors lead to the distress of production and inventory management. This research, to provide an effective stock control model, focuses on an important variable in inventory management - the sales forecast. In the use of regression analysis, three variables highly relevant to car sales are selected among eleven industrial economic variables. (Japanese Yen exchange rate, Unemployment rate, Economic growth rate, Stock market index, gasoline price, U.S. dollar exchange rate, Real wages, National savings rate, Consumer price index, National Industrial production index and Bank interest rate) Computing the variables with multiple regression analysis, three independent variables, ‘stock market index ‘, ‘gasoline price’ and ‘real wages’, remain to develop a company inventory regression management model. The findings come from these three variables are: 1.There are negative correlation between the stock market index in our country and the sales of the case company. This is different to other research results that are relevant to the variables affected by car sales in our country. 2.It shows that liability is negative correlation to gasoline price and the sales of the case company. 3.The real wages of our people positively correlate with the sales of the case company.