以所得決定模式和Solow成長模式來分析台灣經濟成長型態

Applying Income Determination and Solow Growth Models to Analyze Taiwan Economic Growth Pattern

許顥騰(Hao-Teng Hsu)

指導教授 ： 何瓊芳

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200901010

摘要

自台灣政府推動的十大建設、公營事業民營化、陸續放寬出口以及投資限制等，創造高額的外匯存底，並使台灣成為經濟發達地區。隨著經濟不斷成長，政府如何幫助人民為維持一定的所得與消費水準並找出影響經濟成長的因素，成為當今最重要的課題也是本文研究的目標。回顧過去有關於影響經濟成長的相關研究，大多數運用了各種經濟成長理論模型作為研究的基礎，其中又以Solow成長模式運用最為廣泛，而本文研究架構即以所得決定模型(Income Determination Model)和梭羅成長模式(Solow Growth Model)為基礎及並且採用1995年至2007年總體經濟的季資料，並且使用單根檢定、Johansen共整合檢定、誤差修正模型以及一般線性迴歸分析來探討影響台灣經濟成長的因素。除了使用兩種模式分別探討影響經濟成長的因素之外，並且嘗試將兩模式結合提供更完整的解釋。研究結果發現，長期之下，若若政府欲提升經濟成長，可藉由提高政府支出、降低利率水準、增加勞動就業人數、提昇受雇人員薪資水準、提高廠商生產時的能源消費和提高資本存量等方式來達成目標。較特別的是，若將資本存量依購買主體分類而分別探討時，可得知來源為政府單位的資本存量對經濟成長是有負向的影響，而且對經濟成長的貢獻會產生延後的情形。在模式的比較中，研究結果發現使用簡單科布道格拉斯(Simple Cobb-Douglas)模式來解釋台灣經濟成長的結果較原始模式的結果好。從誤差修模型結果中可以發現在簡單科布道格拉斯型式下而變數轉換為每單位勞動之形式，台灣產出會在能源消費以及各分類之資本存量的解釋之下恢復至長期均衡水準。

關鍵字

台灣經濟成長 ； Solow成長模式 ； 向量誤差修正型 ； Johansen共整合 ； 所得決定模式

並列摘要

Since Taiwan government executes Ten Major Construction Projects, Public Enterprise Privatization and releasing the restriction of export and investment, Taiwan has accumulated huge Foreign exchange reserves and become a well-developed area. Accompanying with the growth of economy, major government’s goal shifts to maintain the level of national income and to find real factors which influence the economic growth. That fits our study’s goal. If one reviews the past studies on economy growth, the majority utilizes different kind of economic growth theoretical models to conduct the research, which the Solow Growth Model was used most frequently. In this study, Income Determination Model and Solow Growth Model are conducted as the research foundation and seasonal data from 1995 to 2007 were used for analytical purpose. Finally we use unit root test, the Johansen co-integration examination, the error correction model and general linear regression analysis to discuss important factors which effect Taiwan economy growth. In addition, the study attempts to combine two models to provide a more complete explanation. It is found that if the government wants to boost the economic growth, it can be accomplished by reducing the level of interest rate, increasing the labor force employment, promoting personnel salary, raising the government’s expenditure, conserving the energy expenditure in the process of production and creating capital stock. By separating capital stock into three kinds, the government capital stock has a negative influence to the economic growth, which resealed the less efficiency in the capital usage. In the model comparison, the results showed that Simple Cobb-Douglas pattern explained Taiwan economic growth better than the original ones. In the error correction model, the simple Cobb-Douglas pattern with variable transformation into the per capita base, the output of Taiwan will recover and reach the long turn equilibrium level.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan economy growth ； Vector error correction model ； Johansen co-integration ； Income Determination Model ； Solow Growth Model

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