非核政策下台灣輸電系統預期缺電量之研究

本文應用PSS/E軟體，進行民國105年的夏月尖峰預期停電量(包括限電量及事故停電量)之模擬，最後統計執行龍門不商轉的用戶預期停電量。　　首先，針對台灣北部東系統進行分析，找出東系統的345kV主變電站以及東、西系統相連之345kV輸電線，並分析龍門沒有商轉對於台灣北部東系統之影響。此外，本研究執行PSS/E程式模擬台灣之電力潮流並計算各轄區之缺電量，由模擬結果分析台灣北部東系統缺電量偏高之轄區並建議輸電線之增設。為此，本研究模擬龍門不商轉情況下，一次輸電系統的預期停電量，並提出一套方法，可以預估台電公司針對未來各年的預期停電容量及停電能量，據之，於各個超載變電所估計應採購的自動需量反應之容量及總能量。本研究以民國105年為例，說明本方法之適用性。

關鍵字

預期停電量，需量反應，輸電系統，可靠度

並列摘要

In this thesis, we applied PSS/E software to simulate the expected energy not supplied in the peak time of Summer months (power curtailment and forced outage included), and we calculated the expected energy not supplied of users under the circumstances of Lungmen Nuclear Power Plant stop functioning. Firstly, we analyzed the East system in the Northern Taiwan, and finding the 345kV Bulk Supply Substation of East system and the 345kV power lines which connect between the East and West system; according to the result, we analyze the influences toward the East and West system in the Northern Taiwan under the circumstances of Lungmen Nuclear Power Plant stop functioning. In addition, this study applied PSS/E to simulate the Power Flow in Taiwan and analized the higher capability of the energy not supplied of the area of the East system in the North Taiwan, recommending the creation of the line. This study submits a method which estimates the expected energy not supplied and the capacity and total energy of ADR that should be purchased in every over-loading Substation of Taipower for the future years under the circumstances of Lungmen Nuclear Power Plant stop functioning. All the parameters in this study are set in 2016, we demonstrates the adaptability of the method we submitted.