全球金融海嘯後,總體審慎政策(Macro-prudential Policy,簡稱MPP)開始受到各國金管當局的重視,並用以預防資產泡沫化及穩定金融體系之安定性。本研究整理台灣於金融海嘯後,針對房市實施的MPP政策,採針對不動產放款的呆帳準備(Loan Loss Provision,簡稱LLP)、風險性資本(Risk-Based Capital,簡稱RBC)與限制不動產放款成數(Loan to Value Ratio,簡稱LTV)等主要工具進行研究,研究MPP對不動產放款的管制對不動產融資市場及價格的影響。 本文透過圖型分析、基礎敘述統計分析以及迴歸結果等方式進行研究,結果皆證實:MPP實施對於台灣房市信用確實存在一定的效果,並會透過對房市信用的影響,進一步影響到房價的變化。在穩健性檢驗的部分,本文也使用不同資料(地區別資料改為銀行別、不動產放款資料以及不動產價格資料)進行檢驗,確保整體研究的完整性。 最後,本文也以房屋使用者成本理論為基礎,納入台灣稅制政策考量,計算新的政策利率,用以檢驗文獻對於政策利率有效性的討論。結果發現:原始政策利率確實無法影響房價,反而是調整後的政策利率才確實會對房價產生影響。此一結果加強了政策利率對於抑制房價是「大而不當」的說法,並提升了MPP實施對於不動產市場及金融體系之重要性。
Macro-prudential Policy (MPP) get more attention after the financial crisis of 2008. MPP can be used to prevent asset bubble and stabilize financial system. This research focus on the relationship between MPP and mortgage, and the impact form mortgage to real estate price in Taiwan’s market. We choose Loan Loss Provision (LLP), Risk-Based Capital (RBC) and Loan to Value Ratio (LTV) as research target. Our result confirmed that: form Taiwan’s experience, MPP will affect real estate price, through the impact on the housing credit. In robustness test, this paper also uses different data to ensure the integrity of study. We test different from of data and the others variable that can proxy mortgage and real estate price. Also, this paper use “user cost model” to recalculate the new policy rate, by taking Taiwan’s tax policy into considerations. We find out that the new policy rate can affect the real estate price, unlike the original one. This result support that monetary policy is a blunt tool, and enhance the importance of MPP to real estate market.