緬甸軍事威權體制的形成與演變(1962-2004)

論文摘要本文主要分析緬甸軍事威權體制權力鞏固的策略，並重內、外在因素的分析。由於以往有關緬甸政治的研究文獻分析偏重探討緬甸民主化的「應然」性，往往忽視軍政府長期執政的「實然」面，對於緬甸民主化困境多所勾勒，但關於為何軍事威權體制屹立不搖的原因探討則明顯不足。緬甸軍政府在「內抗外壓」的嚴峻情勢下維持了長期執政，有其架構性原因與策略運用的原因。本文試圖自兩個層次切入探討緬甸軍政府長期執政的原因︰一、政治統治層面。緬甸軍威權體制具有緊密的發展策略與動力，軍人組織比任何政治團強大，具有高度集中的指揮系統與嚴密的階級制度。領導精英大多來自軍隊組織，軍人是唯一能夠合法使用暴力並且擁有大量武器的團體。緬甸軍政府領導人的替換，從未有現任領導人推翻前領導人的例子，都是用和平的模式完成領導人的權力更迭。二、社會架構層面。就緬甸言，宗教及多種族群原因對緬甸政治影響甚鉅。佛教給予民眾因果關係逆來順受的理念以及族群階層兩種交錯產生更多導致社會架構鬆散的因素，(反政府力量較大的族群的利益差異，導致採取反政府的手段不一)。因此，軍事威權政體並非單憑自身力量優勢保障政權的存續，而是有更深層策略運用的空間。本文試圖透過上述兩分析層面，進行緬甸軍政府在內抗外壓：內部有民主化力量、外部有國際壓力的情勢下，能夠長期執政的因素分析，並試圖釐清為何緬甸內部反抗力量，始終無法有效合作，以形成制衡甚至推翻軍政府的原因。以及國際上的力量如聯合國及美國等，對緬甸的制裁為何無法達到實際的效果?緬甸軍政府為何能夠以不理睬的態度應對，及緬甸政府對於被國際制裁所面臨的困境，是如何應對？

關鍵字

緬甸；民主化；軍事威權體制；非民主發展

並列摘要

Abstract The main purpose of the study is to explore how the military junta of Myanmar has been able to sustain its power. The study focuses both on the internal and external factors relating to the development of the regime. Most of the former studies on Myanmar's politic centers on its failure in democratization, but not on the real causes of, why Myanmar can have a military government for a long time? The military government has been able to resist pressure arising from its own society and abroad, i.e. domestic resistance and international sanctions applied by the EU, UN, and US. The thesis looks into the following two aspects to highlight the situation. 1. The aspect of governance: With the establishment of the military government, the Myanmar army has developed to be the most powerful political organization composed of a centralized and hierarchical system. Most leaders of the government come from the army. The army is the sole group that is legalized to possess massive weapons and exert violence. The transition of military leaders has always been peaceful. 2. The aspect of social structure: In Myanmar, religion, race, and social rank greatly affect the political condition. Buddhism for instance teaches people the belief of cause and effect and encourages people to endure hardships. This belief has however resulted in a loose social structure. Moreover, the diverse ethnic groups differ themselves for self-interest pursuit. They are not able to come to consensus in their resistance movement against the government. Therefore, the junta is by no means due to only its own superior strength to safeguard its long-lasting political power, but has in-depth strategy utilizing religion and social rank to their advantage. In sum, this study analyzes both the political and social aspects of why the military regime is able to rule the country for so long despite domestic resistance and international pressure.