促銷時機之研究－以台灣汽車巿場為例

由於台灣汽車產業的競爭情勢愈來愈趨緊張，而汽車廠商現行之行銷方式，無不是廣告行銷、人員行銷以及促銷。然而，廣告行銷與人員行銷這兩種行銷方式對於刺激銷售量之提升，相較於促銷來說，在提升銷售量之速度以及執行之彈性方面皆不如促銷，因此對汽車廠商而言，促銷成為汽車廠商其中一個有力的競爭利器。過去學者論文探討關於促銷與銷售量之間的關係，大多著重於討論促銷對銷售量所帶來的正、負面效果，以及促銷如何影響消費者的購買行為，較少討論促銷之決策層面，如促銷之最適執行時機，以及促銷在執行期間之有效性。因此本研究收集了眾多汽車廠牌的促銷活動以及銷售量資料，以建構出本研究所需之資料庫；接著利用此資料庫，以迴歸分析描繪出汽車此商品，各種不同的促銷活動與銷售量之間的關係，同時找出促銷活動之最適執行時機，以及驗證促銷活動在執行期間對提升銷售量之有效性。研究結果發現，在產品生命週期的導入期，折扣促銷對銷售量有顯著的正向影響；在成長期，折扣促銷與活動促銷皆對銷售量有顯著的正向影響；在成熟期，沒有任何促銷活動對銷售量有顯著的影響。在淡旺季方面，在旺季時，折扣促銷對銷售量有顯著的正向影響；在淡季時，沒有任何促銷活動對銷售量有顯著的影響；在普通季時，活動促銷對銷售量有顯著的正向影響。在促銷執行階段方面，折扣促銷與贈品促銷在執行月份的愈早期，所引起的月銷售量愈高；維修保養促銷與活動促銷在執行月份的愈晚期，所引起的月銷售量愈高；抽獎促銷的執行階段，不論是前期或晚期，都不能明顯刺激銷售量的上升。

關鍵字

促銷時機,產品生命週期

並列摘要

Sales promotion has been playing an important role in stimulating sales of a product. In contrast to advertising which intends to gradually shape consumer attitude, the objectives of sales promotion are (1) to stimulate trial or quicker or greater purchase and (2) to differentiate a brand from other competitors in a short time. Most of past research on sales promotion focuses its effects on retail store sales or on consumer purchase behavior, but rarely discusses the critical timing issues. Because of the execution of this strategy usually at a specific time point and during a specific time period, it is important for firms to consider when to promote and how long to promote, which are designed to cope with the environment pressure and to harmonize with the effects of a myriad of sales promotion tools. In this study, we focus the sales promotion timing decision of durable goods. Durable goods have three characteristics to consumers, high expenditure, long usage life, and lots of attractive accessories. Therefore, the feasible sales promotion tools comprise preferential payment plan, postpurchase service, and accessories at a premium. Each tool means a particular advantage to consumers and probably has an optimal executing timing and time interval. This research is based on the data coded from the reports about automotive sales and sales promotion activities issued by U-CAR, which is the most popular automotive website in Taiwan. Automobiles are subject to seasonal consumer demand induced by the timing of annual model changes. Therefore, we want to discuss in which season, such as peak season and low season, different months, and early or late execution stage in promotion period, the sales promotion tools can give rise more automotive sales. We adopt the method of regression model to examine the moderator effects of seasonal variables on the relationship between the automotive sales and sales promotion tools such as price discount, preferential maintenance service, trade fair and free or lucky draw accessories. Our result shows that price discount has positive effects in the peak-season, the introduction months, the year-end months, and early stage of promotion period. Preferential maintenance service has positive effects in year-end months and late stage of promotion period. Trade fair has positive effects in normal season, the year-end months, and late stage of promotion period. Free accessory has positive effects in late stage of promotion period. Lucky draw accessory has positive effects in introduction months. And none of the tools have significant effects on sales in low season. This research offers a strategic guideline for automotive firms to make timing decisions of sales promotion strategy.