臺灣婚姻與生育關聯性之研究

臺灣適婚年齡女性未婚比例逐年升高，初婚年齡也逐漸上升。本文利用臺灣地區家庭計畫與生育力調查系列之民國87年以及民國93年資料，探討初婚年齡對女性生育時機的影響。本研究主要使用OLS與Cox’s proportional hazard ratio model兩者結果相互對照，逐步加入各個可能影響生育決定的變數，接著再將樣本依照其背景進行分類。整體而言，在控制其他變數的情況之下，初婚年齡對生育時機的影響不顯著，但將樣本依照不同出生年代分類之後，會顯現初婚年齡對生育決定的重要性。臺灣高等教育擴張為女性帶來更多的教育以及工作機會，此使得女性延後結婚的時間，並間接影響生小孩的時間。近40年來女性延後生第一胎的時機是由於初婚年齡的增長而非婚後延後生第一胎。由此可看出女性對於婚姻的決定，正呼應了Becker認為生育為構成家庭最主要因素的論點。

關鍵字

初婚年齡；生育時機；教育擴張

並列摘要

In Taiwan, the marriage age of women is increasing year by year. In this study, I use the data of “the eighth (1998) and ninth (2004) investigation of family and fertility ability in Taiwan” to estimate marriage age effects on women’s fertility timing. Icompare the result of OLS regression model with Cox’s proportional hazard ratio model bygraduallycontrolling every variable that may affect fertility timing, and classified the sample according to their background. In conclusion,as classified the sample according to birth generation, the significance of marriage agewas revealed. The educational expansion in Taiwan brings more education and job opportunities to women, which causes women to postpone marriage and childbearing. In resent 40 years, the reason why women postpone their first childbearing is the older marriage age. This phenomenonshows that women’s marry decision is response to Becker’s theory:”fertility is the main reason to form a family.”