村里層級水患災害脆弱度評估之研究-以南投縣為例

Study on Vulnerability Assessment of Flood Disaster at the Village Level – Using Nantou County as an Example

徐瑋辰(Wei-Chern Hsu)

指導教授 ： 陳皆儒

共同指導教授 ： 劉一中(I-Chung Liu)

國立暨南國際大學/科技學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6837/ncnu202100253

摘要

臺灣是天然災害好發頻度高的地區，災害管理則是面對災害需積極推動的策略，而政府資源通常有限，因此了解轄管範圍的災害脆弱度或風險分布能夠提供資源有效運用之參考。脆弱度分析已廣泛運用於各領域，其中臺灣已有災害脆弱度的相關研究，主要以鄉鎮市以上的層級之探討為主，較少有以村里為層級之災害脆弱度分析。本研究將因循脆弱度研究之方法，並以南投縣為例，進行村里層級水患脆弱度之評估及其應用之探討。
本研究藉由專家調查法進行水患脆弱度評估，並運用修正型德爾菲-層級分析法進行脆弱度數值的計算。首先結合產業界、公務界和學術界共8位專家組成專家小組作為研究調查對象，接著透過德爾菲評分法得出14個影響因子和透過層級分析法確認研究的一致性和求取因子之權重，運用政府提供的公開資料以蒐集此14個影響因子的量化數值，經由計算得出南投縣262個村里水患脆弱度之數值，並產製南投縣村里層級水患脆弱度地圖。
本研究將南投縣村里層級水患脆弱度分成四個等級，分析結果為南投縣有43個高脆弱度村里，72個中高脆弱度村里，112個中低脆弱度村里，35個低脆弱度村里，並發現高脆弱度村里的形成主要控制於淹水潛勢面積比、地形、土地利用比、潛在受影響人口數和社區組織這五項因子，接著進一步針對高脆弱度村里改善進行探討後提出初步策略供參考。最後，本研究進行的脆弱度分析結合專家意見及量化資料，並產出脆弱度地圖及脆弱度排序可供於相關決策之運用。

關鍵字

水患災害 ； 脆弱度分析 ； 專家調查法 ； 修正型德爾菲評分法 ； 層級分析法

並列摘要

Taiwan is prone to various natural hazards. Disaster management is the needed strategy in the face of disasters. Most government has limited resources. To effectively allocate resources for disaster management, a comprehensive understanding of the relative level of risk or vulnerability within the jurisdiction would provide useful reference for planning. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in various fields. In the application of disaster management, past studies on vulnerability analysis for disasters in Taiwan have mainly been carried out at the scale of the township and city level. Studies on disaster vulnerability analysis at the village level is limited. In this study, the approach of vulnerability analysis for flood disasters at the village level scale is investigated, where the Nantou County is the area for assessment.
Expert elicitation was employed for the vulnerability analysis in this study. The modified Delphi method was used to determine influence factors for the flood vulnerability analysis, and the hierarchical analysis process (AHP) method was used to evaluate weights for all pertinent influence factors. Eight experts with qualification on engineering or disaster management were engaged for elicitation of professional opinions through expert surveys. As a result, 14 influence factors were identified after the Delpi survey stage, then weights of each influence factor were computed using the AHP surveying results. Quantitative data of the 14 factors were obtained from governmental open data. With proper normalization of the data for each factor, the vulnerability value for flood disaster of the 262 villages in Nantou County were computed for further assessment.
Four classification tiers were used for grouping the vulnerability level of the 262 villages analyzed herein. There are 43 high vulnerability villages, 72 high to medium vulnerability villages, 112 medium to low vulnerability villages, and 35 low vulnerability villages. It is found that the high vulnerability villages were mainly controlled by five factors: the ratio of flood potential area, topography, land used ratio, proportion of the potentially affected people, and numbers of community organization. Assessment on results of high vulnerability villages were carried out and preliminary strategies for possible reduction of vulnerability were delineated. The study proposed an approach combining experts’ opinion with quantified data for disaster vulnerability analysis. The resulted vulnerability map and vulnerability ranking would be useful for decision making in disaster management.

並列關鍵字

Flood disaster ； Vulnerability Analysis ； Expert Elicitation ； Modified Delphi Methods ； Analytic Hierarchy Process Methods

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