以專利引文網絡分析探討技術生命週期

在快速變遷的經濟環境與日益激烈的競爭下，企業如果想要持續成長，則必須在產品及行銷策略上作出創新，在產品與行銷策略形成之前，必須先發展技術策略。發展技術策略的第一步是評估此技術的未來發展與是否值得投資，因此我們應該去了解此技術的生命週期是處於哪一個階段，這可以幫助我們估計技術未來的發展趨勢，並作出是否投資該技術領域的決策。本研究藉由探討floppy disk與modems之專利技術，在引證(Citing)及被引證(Cited)的技術流動網絡下，看出其網絡結構為何，利用網絡分析的指標，包括向外點中心度(out‐degree centrality)、向內點中心度(in‐degree centrality)，定義floppy disk與modems在技術生命週期期間的發展情況，並區分出生命週期的各個階段；並利用凝聚力(cohesion)和結構地位(structure position)判斷floppy disk與modems之專利技術，在技術供應鏈上不同期間橫向與縱向的競爭與合作關係，進一步了解在技術生命週期的各個階段，廠商自身所擁有的專利是分屬於哪個子技術與扮演何種角色。從實證結果發現，使用專利引文網絡分析的向外點中心度(out‐degree centrality)與向內點中心度(in‐degree centrality)指標可以更清楚地看出技術與知識流動的方向，且向外點中心度(out‐degree centrality)曲線在成長期階段的高峰皆是主流設計出現的時間點；而產業供應鏈會隨著技術愈臻純熟，發生上下游縱向合作關係穩定，橫向相同層級廠商競爭愈趨激烈的現象。這在策略運用上可以相其競爭與合作的對象或方式，辨識出其他廠商對於自身扮演的角色為何，並可從企業配置研發資源的角度考量，協助策略性的研發規劃。

關鍵字

專利引文網絡；技術生命週期；主流設計

並列摘要

The changing rapidly economic environment and fierce increasingly competition that require companies to be innovative, which are in both their products and marketing strategies, if they are to continue to flourish. Before the product strategy formulated, a technology strategy must be developed to provide competitive products, materials, processes, or system technologies. The first step for devising a technology strategy is to decide whether the technology being worth to invest. How will the technology develop in the future? Will the technology still flourish in the future or will it decline? To answer these questions, one should know the life cycle stages of the technology in order to estimate the future development trends of the technology and make informed decisions whether invest in the technology or not. This study takes the patents of floppy disk and modems for example, and uses the technology flow network of citing and cited to discuss the network structure. Defining and distinguishing each stages of technology life cycle by utilize these indicators, including out-degree centrality and in-degree centrality. Finally, exploiting cohesion and structure position to determine the relationships of competition and cooperation in the floppy disk and modems’ technical fields, to realize each patents belongs to what sub-technologies and what roles in each stages of technology life cycle by firms own. The research result shows that using indicators of patent network citation analysis, out-degree centrality and in-degree centrality could recognize the direction of technology and knowledge’s flow. Moreover, the appearance of design dominance’s time point is the peak of out-degree centrality curve in growth stage. And by the maturity of industry’s supply chain, the more stable between upstream and cooperation of downstream, the more competitive between the same level’s firms. The result can help to recognize the character of other firms in strategy, and relocate enterprise’s R&D resources to enhance strategically planning.