基於混合多準則決策方法之技術藍圖-以工業網通公司為例

The Hybird MCDM Methods Based Technology Roadmap Planning-An Empirical Study Base on A networking Company

陳瑄(Chen Hsuan)

指導教授 ： 黃啟祐

國立臺灣師範大學/科技與工程學院/工業教育學系/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202204229

摘要

對企業而言，能掌握產業趨勢、技術評估與產品規劃極為重要，才能推出符合客戶需求的產品以達到永續經營且利潤極大化的經營目的，而技術藍圖(Technology Roadmap, TRMs)為最重要的分析方法，以協助企業掌握市場趨勢，規劃技術策略以進行開發新產品或服務。雖然技術藍圖對於市場、技術與產品之規劃極為重要，部份研究機構也對技術藍圖之規畫提出創新方法，如劍橋大學之T Plan，唯現有之技術藍圖規劃法多基於質性或專家群體法，分析過程較缺乏明確之數字做為決策之基礎，因此，本研究擬結合T-Plan與多準則決策分析方法，整合市場、產品及技術相關資訊，建構技術策略藍圖，作為企業之研發策略、產品創新與技術的開發方向。本研究將導入德菲法(Modified Delphi)、決策實驗室分析法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, DEMATEL)、決策實驗室網路流程法(DEMATEL-based Network Process, DNP)及VIKOR做出最佳的決策方案以幫助決策者，於市場層面、產品層面及技術層面上，以專家問卷的方式改善以往專家會議的缺點，針對每個方案上做出優劣次序的排列，整合出一個最符合決策者理想的方案。

關鍵字

技術藍圖 ； T-Plan ； 修正式德菲法 ； 決策實驗室分析法 ； 決策實驗室網路流程法 ； VIKOR法 ； 多準則決策方法

並列摘要

For enterprises, the capabilities to grasp industry trends, assess technology, and plan products are extremely important. The Technology Roadmap (TRMs) is one of the most important analytic methods to help enterprises to grasp market trends, define technology strategy for the development of new products or services. The TRMs have played a daily dominant role in research and development (R&D) management during the past three decades since the first introduction by Motorola. Some research institutions continuously innovate technology roadmap for enhancing the feasibility and efficiency of the road mapping process. One typical example is the T-Plan being proposed by Cambridge University. However, such qualitative methods based road mapping technique is intuitive and are short of crisp numbers for serving as the basis of decision making. Therefore, the work aims to combine the T-Plan and the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods. The marketing, product and technology related information, will be integrated in the analytic framework. The technology, R&D, product innovation and technology development directions can be defined accordingly. In this study, the modified Delphi method, the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), the decision-making laboratory network flow method (DEMATEL-based Network Process, DNP) and VIKOR will be introduced to summarize experts’ opinions; such summarizations of opinions overcome the shortcomings of previous expert meetings based roadmapping approaches. An empirical study based on an emerging networking firms’ roadmapping of future networking products will serve as the basis for verifying the feasibility of the proposed analytic framework. The verified analytic framework as well as the proposed technology roadmap can serve as the basis for future networking firms’ roadmap definitions.

並列關鍵字

Technology Roadmap ； T-Plan ； Modified Delphi ； DEMATEL ； DNP ； VIKOR ； MCDM (Multi-criteria decision making)

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