後冷戰時期中日俄戰略三角關係演變之探討

後冷戰時期，在東北亞區域大國權力關係中，存在著中日、日俄、俄中、俄美、日美、美中等六組雙邊互動關係。這六組雙邊關係彼此相互牽連，對國際社會、特別是東北亞區域秩序的穩定，具有舉足輕重的影響力。這六組雙邊關係又可視為中、日、俄三國在東北亞區域內的三角互動，及區域外美國對這三角互動所造成的影響。本文目的在探討冷戰結束後，在面對中共快速崛起導致東北亞區域權力結構急遽變化下，透過戰略三角理論，並建立納入區外因素之效益計算方式，探討中日俄三角的演變。本文認為，中日俄三角自冷戰後原有形成三邊家族型三角的跡象，也符合戰略三角理的推論，然而，至今依然呈現出以中俄為親善的婚姻型三角，究其原因，乃區域外美國及國際因素所導至，而修正後效益計算方式，即能對中日俄三角的互動進行良好的解釋。亦即：中、日、俄三國在考量區外因素，對自身在戰略三角中角色效益有所修正後，選擇了現今的互動模式，也因此，當區外因素對中日俄三國效益影響改變後，即能推動中日俄三角的演變。

關鍵字

中日關係；中俄關係；日俄關係；烏克蘭危機；戰略三角理論

並列摘要

After the Cold War, there were six groups of bilateral relations, China – Japan, Japan – Russia, Russia – Chine, US – China, US – Japan, and US – Russia, in the Northeast Asia. These six groups of bilateral relations are implicated in each other and have a decisive influence on the stability of the international community, especially in the Northeast Asian region. These six groups of bilateral relations can be regarded as China, Japan and Russia in the Northeast Asia region within the triangle interaction, and outside the region the United States on the impact of this triangle interaction. The purpose of this thesis is to discuss the evolution of the Sino-Japanese-Russia triangle in the face of the rapid of the China rising leading to change power structure of the Northeast Asia, through the strategic triangular theory and the establishment of the effective calculation method of the outside regional factors. In this thesis, the Sino-Japan-Russian triangle since the post cold war are forming the sign of a family triangle, but also in line with the strategic triangular reasoning, however, still present, a Sino-Russian marriage triangle, the reason is outside factors, United States and international factors. And the revised efficiency of calculation, that is, the Sino-Japan-Russian triangle interaction can be a fine explanation. That is, China, Japan and Russia in consider of outside factors then selected today's interactive mode. Therefore, when the outside factors on the effectiveness of changes in the effectiveness of these three countries, that is, to promote the evolution of the Sino-Japan-Russia triangle.